Egypt’s current account deficit widened to USD 11.1 bn in 1H FY 2024-2025, up from USD 9.6 bn in the same period last fiscal year, driven by an increase in the trade deficit and a drop in Suez Canal revenues, according to central bank figures (pdf).

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BoP still in the red: The overall balance of payments recorded a deficit of USD 502.6 mn during the six-month period, compared with a USD 409.6 mn deficit a year prior.

DRIVING THE RISE-

#1- Suez Canal revenues tumbled: Transit receipts from the Suez Canal dropped 62.3% y-o-y to USD 1.8 bn on the back of Red Sea disruptions that pushed ships to reroute away from the canal. Net tonnage fell 69.2% and vessel transits were down 52.2%.

#2- Non-oil trade deficit widened: The non-oil trade deficit grew 33.8% y-o-y to USD 20.8 bn as non-oil imports rose 26.9% to USD 36.6 bn due to increased spending on wheat, soybeans, pharma products, and car parts imports. This increase was slightly offset by a modest increase in non-oil exports, which were up 18.8% y-o-y, reaching USD 15.7 bn, driven by exports of wires and cables, clothing, aluminum, and fruit.

#3- Oil imports surged: Oil imports jumped 53.3% y-o-y to USD 9.7 bn due to higher imports of natural gas, oil products, and crude oil. Meanwhile, oil exports fell 7% y-o-y to USD 3 bn on the back of lower crude and gas exports. This pushed the oil trade deficit to USD 6.7 bn from USD 3.1 bn last year.

#4- Portfolio investments reversed: Portfolio investment in Egypt registered a net outflow of USD 3.7 bn, compared to a net inflow of USD 253 mn a year earlier.

EASING THE PRESSURE-

#1- FDI inflows grew: Net FDI inflows rose to USD 6 bn from USD 5.5 bn a year ago. The bulk of the figure came from non-oil sectors, led by greenfield investments, real estate purchases by non-residents, and reinvested earnings.

#2- A jump in remittances: Remittances from Egyptians abroad soared 80.7% y-o-y to USD 17.1 bn, as flows returned to official channels after the float of the EGP put an end to the parallel market that had pushed remittance flows through unofficial channels.

** READ MORE- We dive into the latest remittances figure and the reason behind their continued upward pace in a story published last month. Check it out here.

#3- Tourism revenues on the rise: Tourism revenues rose 12.4% y-o-y to USD 8.7 bn, driven by a 12.4% y-o-y increase in tourist nights to 93.5 mn.

#4- Investment income deficit eased: The investment income deficit narrowed 17.2% y-o-y to USD 7.9 bn as investment income payments fell 10.7% to USD 9.2 bn while receipts rose 70.9% to USD 1.3 bn.

REMEMBER- Egypt’s current account deficit more than quadrupled to USD 20.8 bn in FY 2023-24, driven by a significant increase in trade deficit and a decline in Suez Canal revenues. The country recorded an overall balance of payments surplus of USD 9.7 bn during the fiscal year, supported by structural reforms introduced during the second half of the year that brought in net inflows of USD 29.9 bn.

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