Egypt is having to increasingly look to debt to bridge the budget deficit and repay its debt obligations, with the Madbouly government’s financing gap in the next fiscal year’s draft budget up by over 25% to EGP 3.6 tn, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. A government source confirmed to EnterpriseAM earlier this month that the draft budget priced the USD at EGP 50.

The Finance Ministry intends to cover the budget deficit through issuing new local debt instruments worth EGP 2.2 tn in treasury bills and some EGP 928.9 bn in treasury bonds as part of the government's plan to raise spending on social welfare and fill the budget shortfall, according to official figures seen by EnterpriseAM. The ministry also plans to issue at least USD 4 bn in foreign debt during the next fiscal year under a USD 8 bn international debt issuance program.

But from a more positive angle, the budget deficit to GDP is expected to decrease from the 7.6% estimated for this fiscal year to 7.3% of GDP in FY 2025-26, before falling further to 5.5% of GDP in FY 2026-2027.

The ministry’s upcoming debt policy is focused on extending debt maturities by diversifying debt instruments while targeting overall debt reduction, a government source told EnterpriseAM. It includes maintaining external debt for budget entities at USD 79.1 bn, unchanged from September 2024. The government is also working to trim these debts by USD 1-2 bn in the mid-term, which will lead to a gradual improvement in our debt position, longer debt maturities, and lower interest dues, the source added.

The widening shortfall is attributed to a fall in non-tax revenues coupled with increased social spending, our source added. Social spending is projected to increase by 16.8% to EGP 742.6 bn in the next fiscal year, while non-tax revenues are set to come in at EGP 464.9 bn, down from a previous target of EGP 600 bn in the previous year, which was then revised down to EGP 455.7 bn.

The drop in non-tax revenues can partly be attributed to the decline in Suez Canal receipts, which cost us some USD 7 bn (c. EGP 350 bn) in Suez Canal revenues in 2024 alone. Revenues from the global waterway are predicted to rebound to USD 6.3 bn in the next fiscal year — up from USD 3.7 bn in the current fiscal year but still well levels before Israel launched its war on Gaza.

The government is looking toward an increase in tax revenues to help close the gap, in addition to a greater focus on covering outstanding debts with local issuances. The Madbouly government is aiming to raise some EGP 2.6 tn in tax revenues in the upcoming fiscal year through implementing existing tax facilitation laws and introducing new facilities on customs and real estate taxation — all without imposing additional tax burdens.

ICYMI- Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk delivered his budget statement to the House earlier this month, giving us the first proper look at the draft state and public government budgets for the next fiscal year. You can read our rundown of the budget here.

Tags: