Egypt is among six Arab countries set to face a “significant” impact from Trump’s tariff regime, assuming the tariff measures are fully implemented, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) said in a policy brief (pdf). A significant impact is defined as at least 5% of a country’s global exports going to the US. Alongside Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Morocco are expected to be sharply hit, with Jordan being the most exposed with nearly 25% of its exports going to the US.

Despite this, Egypt and its fellow Agadir Agreement nations — Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan — are expected to witness only a moderate 0.3% y-o-y drop in global exports in 2025 despite increased barriers to the US market. Exports across the Arab region as a whole are forecast to fare a little better, remaining essentially flat at -0.01%, propped up by an expected 0.1% uptick in exports from the GCC.

But, US imports to Agadir Agreement nations are expected to drop 24.7% y-o-y in 2025 on the back of higher costs. Stepping in to take the place of the US is an expected uptick in imports from the EU and China, with the four Agadir Agreement nations forecasted to see an 8.0% increase in Chinese imports and a 3.1% uptick in EU imports. ESCWA also notes that intra-Arab trade, particularly among Agadir Agreement countries, could see a relative boost.

But the danger could come from indirect global spillovers, with the ESCWA warning that Arab economies could face indirect headwinds from the tariffs as global demand slows, particularly from key markets like the European Union and China. The EU absorbs 17% of Arab exports, while China accounts for 15%, including 22% of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ oil and chemicals.

Zooming out, exports from the Arab world to the US have already been falling for some time, falling from USD 91 bn in 2013 to USD 48 bn in 2023 on the back of falling US crude imports as it focussed on upping domestic energy production. The US has also held a trade surplus with the region since 2015, which clocked in at USD 20 bn in 2024. This has been partially offset by Arab non-oil exports to the US rising from USD 14 bn in 2013 to USD 22 bn in 2024, but it is these types of exports that now found themselves most in the crosshairs of Trump’s tariff regime.

But there’s no need to let a good crisis go to waste. While exports are expected to dip, ESCWA suggests that Egypt could leverage its improved price competitiveness to capture a greater share of the US market, particularly in goods less affected by the highest tariff bands.

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