Good afternoon, folks. This Monday brings a slew of budget news, and more international coverage of Trump’s tariff-induced trade war. We might be seeing unrelated (directly, at least) changes to AI subscription prices — read ahead for the full picture.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Egypt is closing in on USD 300 mn in budget support from AIIB: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is putting together USD 300 mn in budget support for Egypt, Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat told Bloomberg. The agreement is expected to be finalized by June, Al Mashat said, adding that negotiations have been completed and that local authorities are “just going through the paperwork.”

The government is also pursuing several debt swap agreements aimed at lowering the country’s external debt and improving its credit position, Al Mashat said. The country is in talks with Germany on a debt-for-equity swap that could see Berlin invest in energy-transition projects. It’s also discussing a debt-for-development swap with China that seeks to convert a portion of Egypt’s debt into interest-free loans to finance development projects.

Remember: The news outlet reported earlier this week that Kuwait is considering converting USD 4 bn of deposits it holds in Egypt’s central bank into direct investments in several local sectors. The recent wave of debt conversion talks follow an agreement inked with the UAE last year that converted USD 11 bn of deposits at the CBE into investments in the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma project.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

The foreign press is zeroing in on the supply chain risks posed by Trump’s tariffs: Cargo shipments making their way from China to the US have plunged by as much as 60% after the US raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% in early April, threatening imminent supply shortages, Bloomberg reports. Retail giants Walmart and Target warned the White House that empty shelves and higher prices could hit US stores soon as thousands of companies move to restock their inventories by mid-May.

The disruptions will likely ripple all the way to Christmas: While US President Donald Trump has signaled in recent days that he is willing to be flexible on Chinese tariffs, restarting trade would likely overwhelm reduced shipping capacity, with experts warning that this could create bottlenecks similar to those seen during the pandemic and extend supply disruptions through the critical back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

As well as other corners of the US economy: Economists are now raising inflation forecasts and warning of a potential wave of layoffs across the trucking, retail, and logistics sectors.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Cloudy weather is on the horizon in the capital, with tomorrow’s temperatures expected to reach 31°C throughout the morning before cooling to a warmer-than-usual 22°C at night, according to our favorite weather app.

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