EGX defies regional slump, but the edge may be mechanical

Egypt appears to be one of the least impacted markets by the Trump-era tariff-driven global volatility amongst its regional peers, with the EGX30 up 4.9% YTD. That’s in sharp contrast to regional peers, with Saudi Arabia’s down Tadawul -3.7% over 2025, the DFM at -3.4%, and the ADX inching into the red at -0.02%.

The EGX30 is also faring a whole let better than some of the markets that wrapped up 2024 with record gains, including the S&P 500, which is now down -8.1% YTD. BTC investors can also dream of the returns. Even BTC, which closed out 2024 with a staggering 121.3% YTD gain, is being left in the dust by the EGX30 this time round, with the cryptocurrency having fallen 9.5% since January.

While that’s undoubtedly positive for the EGX, the comparison between the EGX and GCC indexes doesn’t paint the full picture. The divergence has more to do with structural differences than market outperformance in the traditional sense. As we explain below, the unique mechanics of the EGX helped it emerge a winner by virtue of its structure, not necessarily market fundamentals.

The EGX’s relative resilience is largely a function of its investor base. Trading activity remains dominated by local, retail investors — for example, 80.9% of trading activity was done by retail investors and 90.5% by local investors during trading yesterday. These investors tend to be more reactive to local cues and sentiment-driven triggers, such as the recent reaffirmation of Egypt’s commitment to a flexible FX regime.

This means that any sell-off is less likely to spiral, because retail traders account for the lion’s share of turnover in Egypt, 3 Way Securities Chair Rania Jacoub told us last week. Retail investors tend to be more speculative, and this behavior could underpin a near-term correction rather than a sustained downturn.

In contrast, regional peers like the Tadawul and UAE markets are more exposed to global investor flows. Foreign investors were net sellers on the Tadawul last week, offloading SAR 2.2 bn worth of equities, while local investors bought SAR 2.3 bn. Non-Arab foreigners accounted for 44.5% of turnover on the ADX and 40.9% on the DFM last week.

The EGX’s relatively low liquidity and smaller size also mean it responds more sharply to modest inflows — especially when there’s a local policy trigger. Case in point: Tadawul closed yesterday with a turnover of SAR 6.5 bn — 23x the EGX’s 90-day average.

Crude overhang is also weighing on Gulf markets, as weakness in crude continues to pressure sentiment and the earnings outlook for Gulf corporates, especially state-linked and large-cap names. This pressure is reflected in YTD performances of important market constituents, including Aramco — the Tadawul’s heavyweight — which is down -7.5%, the DFM-listed DEWA in the red -10.3%, and Abu Dhabi’s Taqa at -2.2%.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning following a tech rally in US markets, with Japan’s Nikkei up 1%, and Hang Seng (Hong Kong) virtually unchanged, while Shanghai Composite is inching down 0.4%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are pointing to marginal losses when markets open.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.02% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 4.4 bn (22.2% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 4.9% YTD.

In the green: GB Corp (+8.5%), Juhayna (+4.1%), and Qalaa Holdings (+3.6%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-2.4%), Credit Agricole (-2.4%), and CIB (-1.7%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Madinet Masr has purchased 42.7 mn shares — around 2% of its capital — as part of a treasury stock buyback program approved by its board on 6 March, the company said in a statement (pdf) from the real estate company. The total program aims to buy back up to 4% of the company’s total capital (around 85.4 mn shares) through open market transactions.

#2- Fintech giant Fawry transferred the ownership of 750k shares worth EGP 3.4 mn under its employee incentive and reward program, according to an

bulletin (pdf) on the EGX.