Prices at the pumps are going up for the first time in 2025, after the Oil Ministry’s fuel pricing committee raised fuel prices by 11.8-14.8% over the weekend, it said in a statement. The government last hiked prices at the gas station back in October 2024, when it hiked prices by up to 17.4% for some types of fuel.

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A look at the new prices at the gas station:

  • 95-Octane now costs EGP 19.00 per liter, up 11.8% from EGP 17.00;
  • 92-Octane rose to EGP 17.25 per liter, up 13.1% from EGP 15.25;
  • 80-Octane reached EGP 15.75 per liter, up 14.5% from EGP 13.75;
  • Diesel and kerosene now cost EGP 15.50 per liter, up 14.8% from EGP 13.50;
  • Drivers of natural gas-powered vehicles were spared the hike, with the committee deciding to leave prices unchanged for them at the pump.

The price for a 12.5-kg butane gas cylinder also rose, increasing to EGP 200, up 33.3% from 150 EGP, while the commercial cylinder now costs EGP 400, up 33.3% from EGP 300.

Industrial mazut also saw a hike, with mazut supplied to most industrial sectors rising 10.5% to EGP 10.5k per ton. But there was good news for the food industry and electricity generation, with mazut prices for them kept at the same levels as before.

The statement made no mention of whether household natural gas prices were adjusted or left unchanged.

THE AFTERMATH-

Users of public transport in the capital are also going to feel the pinch, with fare hikes announced by Cairo Governorate :

  • Public bus fares rose to EGP 10 up from EGP 9 for regular buses and EGP 20 up from EGP 17 for air-conditioned vehicles,
  • White taxi meters in Cairo will now start at EGP 11.5, up from EGP 10.5 and rising to EGP 2.25 per km.
  • Minibus travel in Cairo will now cost EGP 16 up from EGP 14, and EGP 19 up from EGP 17 for air-conditioned vehicles.

Despite the cut in subsidies, the state still spends EGP 366 mn per day and EGP 11 bn a month on fuel subsidies, according to a separate statement from the ministry. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly reiterated as early as recently month the country’s intention to have energy prices reach cost recovery levels by the end of the year by phasing out all fuel subsidies in line with its structural reform agenda with the International Monetary Fund.

But some think the IMF may agree to slow the pace of energy reform, including Al Ahly Pharos Senior Economist Esraa Ahmed, who told us that getting fuel prices up to cost recovery levels by end of the year would cause “drastic and rapid movements” in inflation. Although the details of the discussions are still mostly unknown, Madbouly said in a presser near the end of last year that the two sides were negotiating “how we can postpone some of the targets so that we do not put pressure on the citizens in the coming period.”

Subsidy cut slowdown or not, we shouldn’t see any more fuel price hikes for the next six months, the Oil Ministry confirmed.

But shouldn’t a decrease in global oil prices be reflected at the pumps? Although Brent crude futures are currently at USD 64.76 per barrel, down 13.4% over the month, the decision to hike prices will help the government avoid budget strain from previous oil import contracts signed before the current dip in global prices, two government officials told EnterpriseAM. The government moved quickly to secure new low-price contracts, anticipating US-China trade tensions and other global uncertainties to impact markets.

Analysts we spoke to all agreed that the move will add to inflationary pressures — and even push up the headline figure. Banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal forecast the move to have direct and indirect impact that could see headline inflation reaching 15.5%, while Zilla Capital’s Aya Zoheir expects the decision to push April’s inflation to reading to the 14% mark. Some, including economist Mona Bedair, argued that although the “phased adjustment of domestic energy prices may introduce mild inflationary pressures ahead, these factors do not overshadow the broader trend of easing domestic inflation.”

Unlike most other goods or commodities, an increase in fuel prices doesn’t just increase the price at the gas station, but also in the souq, the supermarket, and for any goods that need to be transported. HC Brokerage’s Equity Research Head Nemat Choucri told us that the diesel price hike would increase food transportation costs and in turn food and beverage prices, while the mazut price increases “would increase the production cost for the industrial sector and hence would lead to higher prices of industrial products.”

Fuel price hikes “will add a new layer of complexity to the Monetary Policy Committee’s

[interest rate] decision,” economist Hany Abou El Fotouh told us, adding that “this increase is expected to lead to higher inflation readings in the coming months, which may prompt the central bank to adopt a more conservative approach and hold off on cutting interest rates.”

The international press also took note of the hike: Reuters

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