The Finance Ministry now sees Brent crude prices averaging USD 77 per barrel from July 2025 through June 2026, down from its previous forecast of USD 82 a barrel in the FY 2024-25 budget, a government source told EnterpriseAM. The estimated price could be higher than actual oil price levels during the year, our source suggested, saying that indicators are pointing towards a global dip in oil prices at large.

It’s been a tough week for oil in the markets this week, most recently with Brent crude falling 19.0% this month already, with the all-important commodity now trading at USD 62.82 a barrel. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate has faced an even tougher month, now down 19.0% in just nine days to sit at USD 57.66 a barrel . The two are currently trading at their lowest levels since early 2021 — a far cry from the USD 100 a barrel forecasts that popped up in the international business press throughout 2024.

The government is looking to hedge against future uncertainties by renewing its annual hedging contracts with investment banks, with current global conditions as among the most difficult to date, our source added. The state has also been deploying a bit more hard currency than usual, looking to take advantage of the sharp decline in global commodity prices — including oil — by securing strategic contracts, a government source told EnterpriseAM earlier this week.

But on the plus side, lower global oil prices will benefit Egypt’s external balances given its position as a net importer in recent months and until the Zohr gas field’s production levels recover, EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us on the sidelines of EFG Hermes’ annual One on One in Dubai.

The current decline in prices and renewed tariff-induced inflation concerns could also prompt the government to consider temporarily postponing fuel price hikes — especially as the average selling price inches closer to the break-even point of USD 57 a barrel without government subsidies, a source from the oil sector told EnterpriseAM. The move would give the government the flexibility to maintain current prices temporarily until the global outlook becomes clearer, while still reducing the amount it pays out in subsidies. Alternatively, the government could move to raise prices at a slower pace than previously planned, which would help support the state’s economic and social efforts, the source added.

But don’t expect the price of gas to fall, economist Mona Bedair told EnterpriseAM. She explained that “even with favorable oil market dynamics, the catch-up mechanism, the drive toward cost recovery, and the need to fund diesel subsidies all point to a likely increase in retail fuel prices — not a reduction.” Doing this “helps the government balance between fiscal responsibility and social protection, while maintaining credibility with its IMF reform commitments,” she added.

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