Coffee might be seeing bitter days ahead: Coffee futures — which index the price paid for advance purchases of coffee — are reaching unprecedented highs, raising concerns about the affordability and availability of our favorite caffeine fix in the coming months and years, Business Insider writes. With prices skyrocketing, coffee lovers may be facing higher costs and potential changes in quality, as coffee growers grapple with the destructive impact of climate change.

What’s driving the trend? Coffee is the world’s second-most-traded commodity after oil — and as such, coffee prices often reflect market trends early. Traders purchase shipments months or years in advance, making futures a key indicator of consumer costs down the line. Since the pandemic, coffee futures have steadily risen alongside inflation, with store-bought prices in the US following suit since 2022. Price increases from major brands like Folgers, J.M. Smucker, Maxwell House, and Nestlé haven’t yet deterred demand, though a projected 25% price rise in the coming months could provide another test of how addicted we really are.

Aside from the price changes, expect “flavorflation”: Companies could mix lower quality robusta beans — which have also seen price increases — into blends while maintaining premium branding. In Indonesia, some cafes have started blending coffee with corn and rice to extend supply. Small roasters in particular are feeling the squeeze, with many facing pressure to compromise on quality or price despite commitments to high-quality sourcing and fair trade. Specialty coffee already costs more than that of mass market brands, with rising costs possibly forcing roasters to use lower-rated beans.

Blame mother nature: The past two years have been the hottest on record, bringing on intense droughts, scorching heat, coffee plant diseases, and unstable supply chains. Severe droughts in Brazil and Vietnam have devastated harvests, while low water levels in the Panama Canal have disrupted shipping. Brazil, the largest global supplier of high-quality arabica beans, saw its worst drought in 2023, leading to another poor harvest.

More trouble is brewing: Experts warn that supply issues may persist over the next two decades with poor harvests becoming more common and wild arabica at risk of becoming endangered. Projections indicate that coffee farmland may shrink by half, potentially turning the drink into a luxury item rather than a daily staple.

Will coffee survive? Coffee lovers the world over have reason to be concerned. It’s hard to see how harsher, hotter summers and more frequent droughts are going to be reversed without swift action to lower carbon emissions, something world leaders continue to fail to commit to. So savor that cup of joe while you can — because it’s coming with a higher price tag and may not always be there.

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