Good afternoon, wonderful people, and happy Thursday. Despite the slow newsday the EnterpriseAM presses continue to churn, with today’s issue covering all the latest on possible Central Bank of Egypt rate cuts and Microsoft’s recent advance in quantum computing.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

#1- It’s interest rate day: All eyes are on the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting later today, where the committee will decide on whether to cut interest rates after having kept rates stable over six consecutive MPC meetings since its March hike that coincided with the float of the EGP. The overnight deposit rate currently stands at 27.25%, the overnight lending rate at 28.25%, and the main operation and discount rates at 27.75%.

Analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM have been split on which way the MPC will go, with four out of nine surveyed analysts telling us that they expect the bank to cut interest rates between 100-200 basis points on the back of a strong positive base effect and slowing inflation. Three of the participants forecasted that the committee would hold rates, and the last two were on the fence as to which way the bank would go. Fitch Ratings, for its part, has predicted that the MPC will cut today, with the rating agency seeing the CBE slashing rates 100-200 bps thanks to a dip in inflation.

#2- ADQ-backed Agthia takes bigger bite of Abu Auf: ADX-listed and Abu Dhabi-based food giant Agthia Group has nabbed an additional 10% stake in homegrown snack-maker Abu Auf, bringing its total stake in the specialty nut and date processor to 80%, it said in a filing (pdf) to the bourse. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Not the first we’re hearing of it: Agthia — which is majority-owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ — has been slowly upping its stake in the company, with the Emirati food giant first acquiring a 60% interest in Abu Auf back in 2022 before securing another 10% in February 2024, exercising a contractual put option (pdf).

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

As int’l news outlets continue to digest the recent verbal sparring between US president Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, headlines are following the first return of deceased Israeli hostages under the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, with the Red Cross facilitating the transfer of four deceased Israelis — including the bodies of infant Kfir Bibas and his four-year-old brother Ariel — to their families. Israel set to receive an additional six hostages on Saturday in exchange for hundreds Palestinian detainees. Negotiations to release all of the 60 remaining hostages are expected in the coming days as the ceasefire agreement moves into its second phase. (Reuters)

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • The reconstruction of Gaza can be completed in three years. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during his weekly presser yesterday that Egyptian universities and consulting firms will take part in preparing the plan for rebuilding Gaza alongside Arab and international firms, with Madbouly estimating that the process would take around three years.
  • Moody’s kept Egypt’s outlook positive and affirmed its Caa1 rating — seven rungs into junk territory. The agency believes the positive outlook “reflects the prospects for an improvement in Egypt's debt service burden and external profile.”
  • The banking sector will need to make some changes in the event of a rate cut: With the prospect of a monetary easing cycle looming large, commercial banks are expected to take several measures to prevent a decline in their revenues, after an extended period of high earnings achieved due to high interest rates on loans and treasury bills.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s getting even colder tomorrow in Cairo with a high of 17°C and a low of 10°C by nightfall, according to our favorite weather app.

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