Egypt’s current account deficit more than doubled in 1Q FY 2024-2025, reaching USD 5.9 bn compared to USD 2.8 bn recorded during the same period last fiscal year thanks to a sharp increase in the trade deficit and a significant decline in Suez Canal revenues, according to central bank figures (pdf).

BoP back in the red: The overall balance of payments recorded a deficit of USD 991.2 mn during the quarter — the balance of payments recorded a surplus of USD 228.8 mn during 1Q FY 23-24.

BEHIND THE RISE-

#1- Suez Canal earnings took a hit: Revenues from the Suez Canal dropped by 61.2% y-o-y to USD 931.2 mn — net tonnage fell 68.4% y-o-y and the number of transiting ships fell 51.0% y-o-y — with ongoing Red Sea tensions prompting many shipping companies to reroute away from the canal.

#2- Oil imports on the rise: Oil imports saw a 85.2% y-o-y rise to record USD 5.4 bn on the back of higher oil and natural gas imports. Exports, meanwhile, fell 25.8% y-o-y to USD 1.2 bn due to lower crude exports. This pushed the oil trade deficit to USD 4.2 bn, up from USD 1.3 bn a year earlier.

#3- Non-oil trade deficit widened: Imports of non-oil goods rose by 32.9% y-o-y to USD 17.7 bn, driven by higher spending on key commodities like wheat, soybeans, and pharma products. This increase was slightly offset by a modest increase in non-oil exports, which were up USD 1.2 bn during the quarter to record USD 7.9 bn thanks to exports of fruits, vegetables, aluminum, and cables.

EASING THE PRESSURE-

#1- FDI inflows on the rise: Foreign direct investment recorded a net inflow of USD 2.7 bn, up from USD 2.3 bn during the same period last fiscal year. Non-oil sectors attracted the bulk of this figure, supported by “selling local entities to non-residents … greenfield investments and capital increases of existing companies … and real estate purchases by non-residents.”

#2- Portfolio outflows slowed: Outflows from portfolio investments shrank to USD 384.7 mn compared to USD 523.4 mn last year.

#3- Tourism continued its recovery: Revenues from the tourism sector rose 8.2% y-o-y to USD 4.8 bn — the number of tourist nights spent in Egypt saw a 8.2% y-o-y increase to 51.6 mn.

#4- Remittances provided relief: Remittances from Egyptians abroad jumped 84.4% y-o-y to USD 8.3 bn as Egyptians abroad have started sending more of their remittances through official channels after the float of the EGP put an end to the parallel market that had pushed remittance flows through unofficial channels.

Remember: Egypt’s current account deficit more than quadrupled to USD 20.8 bn in FY 2023-24, driven by a significant increase in trade deficit and a decline in Suez Canal revenues. The country recorded an overall balance of payments surplus of USD 9.7 bn during the fiscal year, supported by structural reforms introduced during the second half of the year that brought in net inflows of USD 29.9 bn.

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