After 15 months of a brutal war on Gaza and tens of thousands of civilians killed, a ceasefire is just days away, after Israel and Hamas agreed to an Egyptian, Qatari, and US mediated ceasefire set to come into effect on Sunday, 19 January. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani broke the news last night, adding in his announcement that “we hope this will be the end of a dark chapter of war.”

The talks “ran into the early hours of Wednesday, with [mediators] upstairs with the Israeli negotiators, and Hamas downstairs, nailing down dozens of details,” the Financial Times writes. US and Qatari mediators will meet with their Egyptian counterparts in Cairo today for talks “on the implementation of the deal in all aspects,” the salmon-colored paper said, citing a US administration official.

Here’s what we know about the agreement’s first phase:

  • The six-week initial phase of the ceasefire will include a gradual Israeli troop withdrawal from central Gaza, allowing displaced Palestinians to return to northern areas, according to an official briefed on the negotiations, cited by Reuters.
  • Hamas has agreed to release 33 Israeli hostages, starting with female hostages, children, and men over 50, followed by male soldiers’ remains.
  • In exchange, Israel will release 30 Palestinian detainees for every civilian hostage and 50 detainees for every Israeli female soldier released.
  • Israel is expected to release between 990 and 1.65k Palestinian detainees by the end of the first phase, including all women and children under 19 detained since October 2023.
  • Hamas’ staggered release of hostages will occur over the six weeks, with at least three released each week and all living hostages freed before the return of remains.

This will be followed by the yet to be finalized second and third phases of the agreement: By day 16 of the ceasefire, negotiations for a second phase will begin, focusing on the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent truce, and a full Israeli withdrawal. A third phase will facilitate Gaza’s reconstruction under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar, and the UN.

Egypt is gearing up to deliver as much humanitarian aid as possible, an informed source confirmed to Al Qahera News. The agreement mandates that 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid, including 50 carrying fuel, be delivered to Gaza every day during the ceasefire, with 300 of those trucks allocated to the north, the US official told Reuters.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi welcomed the agreement, and stressed the need to resume humanitarian aid delivery to the Gazans to relieve them from the catastrophic conditions the war left them in, according to an Ittihadiya statement.

But it's not a final agreement yet: Despite all the ceasefire agreement news covering the front pages of local and foreign press, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that there are still some sections in the agreement that are “left open.” The Israeli head of state is expected to make an announcement once the “details of the agreement are finalised.”

Rebuilding Gaza will be a monumental challenge: The total cost of rebuilding could exceed USD 80 bn when accounting for the longer-term impacts, RAND economist Daniel Egel told Bloomberg, adding that “You can rebuild a building, but how do you rebuild the lives of a million children?” Over 70% of Gaza’s houses have been damaged, alongside schools, hospitals, and businesses, leaving behind more than 42 mn tons of debris that could take years, thousands of workers, and up to USD 700 mn to clear.

Gaza needs financial support to rebuild the city — and lives. Many countries — including Gulf countries, the EU, US and Japan — pledged to chip in many times to rebuild Gaza, but nothing is concrete yet. There are also concerns from major donors — including Qatar — about spending money on Gaza’s reconstruction during an uneasy peace.

The markets received the news well: All US stocks ended Wednesday in the green, with the three main indices logging in their biggest daily gains in over two months, which was fueled by the ceasefire agreement, but also solid core inflation data, and good earning seasons for US banks. S&P 500 was up 1.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.7%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.5%. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 index closed up 2.0%.

Government bond markets in the region also responded positively: Egyptian and Jordanian government debt notched improvements after the ceasefire deal, reports Reuters, which analysts are putting down to a perceived calming of geopolitical risk.

Our talking heads dedicated most of their air time to the news last night, welcoming the agreement that followed a brutal war that left the strip in ruins. Yahduth Fi Misr's Sherif Amer (watch, runtime: 3:29 | 4:46 | 5:09) and Masa DMC's Osama Kamal (watch, runtime: 32:15) provided detailed coverage of the agreement's terms, phases, and expectations for the next stage.

“Arabs and the entire region have lived through a nightmare, watching their brothers in Gaza being slaughtered in cold blood and subjected to criminal acts unprecedented even by historical standards of occupation forces. Not even Hulegu or any other morally depraved leader has done what Israel did in Gaza,” Kamal said, stressing on the need for the ceasefire to continue until comprehensive peace is achieved.

Some, including Amer, gave some credit to Trump for the news, telling his viewers that “Netanyahu doesn't sign agreements he doesn't want to, but this [agreement] was a gift he was forced to present to the White House's new President [Trump]."

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