Bashar Al Assad has left Syria as decades-long rule comes to an end

Good afternoon folks, and happy Sunday. We have a packed issue for you today, with all the latest on the domestic and int’l fronts as well as a deep dive into what’s so special about ChatGPT’s new premium offering.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Ezz Steel may be delisting from the EGX: Ezz Steel’s Board of Directors has voted to begin procedures for delisting its shares from the EGX, with all listed shares to be transferred to their primary market on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), should the move get the general assembly’s greenlight, according to an EGX statement (pdf). Objecting shareholders can sell their shares back to the company at either the highest closing price during the month preceding the board of directors’ statement — EGP 119 per share — or the fair value of the company’s shares as determined by an independent financial advisor registered with the Financial Regulatory Authority. The company has tapped BDO Keys Financial Consulting to carry out the valuation, and will be convening an extraordinary general assembly of the company’s shareholders to vote on the decision.

IMF program negotiations to conclude by year-end: The government is close to an agreement with the IMF on the modification of some of our reform program’s timelines, with Egypt set to be included on the IMF Executive Board’s agenda before the Christmas holidays, a high-ranking government official told EnterpriseAM.

The details: The government is talking with the IMF about postponing a fuel hike planned for the end of this month to early March and postponing a subsequent hike in June to September. This would push the timeline for fully eliminating fuel subsidies to June 2026, rather than December 2025, the source said, noting that such a decision would likely help bring down inflation in the interim. One roadblock to ongoing negotiations, however, is Egypt’s increased spending on fuel subsidies, which has risen 232% y-o-y to EGP 28.5 bn in the first quarter of FY 2024-25 despite three rounds of fuel price hikes this calendar year.

What’s next? While the government has managed to reach broad agreement with the IMF’s Middle East office around Egypt’s economic performance, it is still awaiting the approval of the Fund’s largest members to finalize the disbursement schedule for the USD 1.3 bn loan tranche set to be unlocked by the successful conclusion of our loan program’s fourth review.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

Today’s international headlines are squarely focused on Bashar Al Assad’s apparent fall from power in the early hours of the morning. Assad’s decades-long rule comes to an end after Syrian rebels seized control of Damascus following a lightning offensive that saw rebels unexpectedly capture large swathes of Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Homs governorates. Assad’s whereabouts remain unknown after reportedly fleeing the capital, with the Russian government confirming that the erstwhile president had left Syria. The rebel coalition has announced plans for a transitional government to be overseen by rebel forces until a peaceful handover of power can be implemented.

Despite joyful celebration from Syrians inside and outside the country, Assad’s fall from grace has been met with a markedly more ambivalent response from governments around the world, with the US pledging to maintain its presence in eastern Syria “to prevent an Islamic State resurgence.” Turkish-backed forces are advancing in northern Syria’s Manbij, heightening concerns over potential clashes with US-backed Kurdish forces. Gulf states like UAE have in turn voiced fears over extremist groups gaining influence, with the Turkish government echoing calls for an “inclusive” new administration. (Reuters | Financial Times | Bloomberg | AP | BBC | CNN | The Washington Post | Sky News)

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• It looks like the LNG regasification unit docked in Jordan may soon be heading to Ain Sokhna, following an agreement to lease a unit between US-based New Fortress Energy and Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) starting in 2H 2025.
• Foundever is looking to hire 5k Egyptians over the next four years as part of an expansion plan under an MoU with the Information Technology Industry Development Agency (ITIDA) that will see it increase its investments to EUR 65 mn to expand its two existing call centers in Cairo and launch a new center in Luxor set to open in 1H 2025.
• Your home internet and mobile bill just got pricer: Telecom Egypt (WE) has hikedthe price of home internet packages by up to 31% over the weekend and — alongside other network operators — increased the price of mobile packages as well.

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re expecting some hazy sunshine in the capital tomorrow, with the mercury peaking at 24°C in the morning and dipping to 13°C in the evening, according to our favorite weather app.