AI’s big moment could arrive with the next recession. The buzz around AI replacing jobs has been building ever since OpenAI’s ChatGPT brought the generative AI into the mainstream, Fortune reports. But despite the panic, robots haven't taken over the workplace yet — though mostly because the economy has held steady.

AI’s role in a downturn: In short, when profits are high, companies are less inclined to cut jobs, Fortune writes. When things get tight, however, AI could become the go-to solution for companies looking to trim costs. This sudden shift would mean more machines stepping into roles traditionally held by people, leading to what economists call a “jobless recovery.” IMF deputy managing director Gita Gopinath noted that a similar thing happened after the US’ Great Recession, with many manufacturing jobs lost to automation.

The numbers are staggering, but come with a caveat: A report estimated that AI could replace the equivalent of 300 mn jobs in the US and Europe, though it would likely only take over 25% to 50% of the work in any individual role. In emerging economies, AI is expected to be less immediately disruptive, touching just 40% of jobs instead of 60% of positions in the rich world, according to the IMF. But Gopinath's message of “don't get too comfortable” stands — if the economy goes south, we might be facing a particularly tough period of belt-tightening.

But there’s an upside: AI has a lot of productivity potential — which could translate into an economic boom, new and better jobs, and rising living standards. Economist and Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu has estimated that AI adoption will prompt a 0.7% productivity increase over the next decade in the US alone. The IMF has even higher predictions, suggesting that AI could add 10 to 80 basis points to global productivity growth over five years — a boost that could raise growth rates from their currently sluggish levels.

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