The global economy is inching closer towards stability, with the impact of aggressive rate hikes by central banks starting to fade, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)’s latest economic forecast (pdf). The Paris-based organization revised its global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2%, up 0.1 percentage points. The projection for 2025 was kept at the same level.

What’s driving the change? A combination of cooling inflation, recovering trade flows, and easing labor market pressures is boosting the economy and allowing central banks to begin to ease monetary policy. If the decline in oil prices persists, headline inflation could fall a further 0.5 percentage points lower than expected next year, the OECD says.

The big picture: Global growth is expected to stabilize despite geopolitical tensions and sluggish labor markets. The OECD now expects the UK economy to expand by 1.1% in 2024, up from its previous estimate of 0.4%, and by 1.2% in 2025, up 0.2% percentage points from its previous estimate. Growth in the euro zone is expected to nearly double from 0.7% growth this year to 1.3% in 2025, as incomes outpace inflation.

Meanwhile, the US and China are up for more modest slowdowns, with interest rate cuts expected to help cushion the US economy’s slowdown to 1.8% next year from 2.6% in 2024, up from a previous 2025 estimate of 1.6%.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are largely in the green, with China’s CSI 300 continuing a five-day streak of gains as investors cheer the economic stimulus package introduced by the government earlier this week. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi are also both up 1.7%. Over on Wall Street, the Dow Jones broke its four-day streak of gains, with futures little changed this morning.

EGX30

31,251

+1.2% (YTD: +25.5%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.47

Sell 48.62

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.50

Sell 48.60

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,344

+0.6% (YTD: +3.1%)

ADX

9,516

+0.6% (YTD: -0.6%)

DFM

4,489

+0.6% (YTD: +10.6%)

S&P 500

5,722

-0.2% (YTD: +20.0%)

FTSE 100

8,269

-0.2% (YTD: +6.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,917

-0.5% (YTD: +8.8%)

Brent crude

USD 73.46

-2.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.66

+0.7%

Gold

USD 2,681.10

+0.2%

BTC

USD 63,439.50

-1.2% (YTD: +50.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.7 bn (18.1% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.5% YTD.

In the green: Elsewedy Electric (+8.6%), Emaar Misr (+6.2%), and GB Corp (+3.5%).

In the red: Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (-0.6%), Cleopatra Hospitals (-0.3%), and Eastern Company (-0.2%).

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