Egypt’s efforts to secure energy supplies and better balance the books amid a rising national energy bill are continuing at full speed, with the country securing its latest batch of shipments and talk of upcoming gas price hikes for industry as the government tries to phase out subsidies.

LNG SHIPMENTS BOOKED IN FOR OCTOBER TO DECEMBER-

More LNG shipments secured: The government has bought 20 cargoes of LNG for some USD 907 mn to cover domestic needs between October and December, unnamed sources told Reuters. The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) awarded the tender under a six-month deferred payment plan.

Winter shipments are a bit of a rarity for Egypt: The tender marks the country’s first winter LNG tender since 2018, according to the newswire.

The suppliers: The tender was awarded to commodity trading giant Glencore, crude and oil trader Gunvor, MEX International, Trafigura, Vitol, Hartree, BB Energy, TotalEnergies, Shell, Saudi Aramco, and BP. “Aramco is said to have won the most number of cargoes, around 6-7, with the rest winning cargoes between 1 to 3,” according to S&P Global.

Remember: EGPC last week issued the tender for the 20 shipments, split between 17 shipments of LNG for its floating import terminal at Ain Sokhna, as well as three more cargoes for delivery to Jordan’s Aqaba, in one of the state-owned firm’s largest ever tenders. The tender closed on 12 September.

The details: The EGPC received offers from over 15 major firms at “very competitive rates that were 30-40% less than expected market prices,” a trading source told Reuters. The offers were around USD 1-plus per mn British thermal unit (BTU) premium to the benchmark Dutch TTF, which is around USD 0.60/mn BTU — “far less than market expectation.” The lower than expected premium partially came as a result of “confidence in EGPC” and its “strong ties” with global energy firms, one source told Reuters.

So how much are we paying? Egypt is paying some USD 45 mn per 3.5 ton BTU cargo — putting the total cost of all 20 cargoes at USD 907 mn, according to S&P Global.

The timeline: We’re getting seven deliveries next month, six in November, and seven in December.

More to come? “We will need to import another 17-20 shipments in 1Q 2025,” a government source told Enterprise last week.

MORE DETAILS ON INCOMING GAS PRICE HIKES FOR FACTORIES–

Gov’t mulls hiking gas prices for factories: The government has been conducting studies about increasing the price of natural gas supplies for the country’s industrial sector since July, a government source confirmed to Enterprise.

How much are we talking? A government source we spoke to told us that we can expect natural gas prices to see a 6-8% increase. Asharq Business reports that the government is expected to raise natural gas prices 10-30% from the current USD 5.75 per mn BTU, citing its own unnamed government officials. Asharq Business’ sources added that studies have determined that a mn BTU comes at a cost of USD 6. Al Arabiya reported that an unnamed government source told them that they see prices rising to USD 7-7.5 per mn BTU for steel players.

The final decision on prices largely depends on the state’s ability to provide factories with their natural gas needs, according to Al Arabiya’s sources. At the moment, the state can only supply factories with 70% of their gas needs.

We knew this was coming: A government source in the petroleum sector told Enterprise backin August that the government is looking into raising the price at which gas is offered to factories, saying that the current price of USD 5.75 per mn BTU is no longer viable due to the rising cost of natural gas supplies. Any price adjustment will take the preservation of subsidies into account to keep product prices stable, they added.

What does this mean for manufacturers? The price hike will push the operational costs of one ton of steel rebar to rise by USD 26, industry players told Al Arabiya, adding that this will definitely be rolled onto the final price tag at which the product is sold to customers. Meanwhile, sources from the fertilizer sector said that any increase in gas prices will be accompanied by a corresponding rise in the price of subsidized fertilizers. The ceramic industry has been excluded from the list of energy-intensive industries, our source said.

Gradually lifting gas subsidies: The government aims to gradually lift subsidies on natural gas until 2026 to avoid adding to inflationary pressures, our source said. “We are currently buying gas at around USD 12.5-13 per mn British thermal units,” and carrying on selling it at a subsidized price is unsustainable, our source added.

The sector is also facing electricity price hikes: Rates for industry increased this month to between EGP 1.74 and EGP 2.34 per kWh across high, medium, and low consumption industries, up from between EGP 1.10 and EGP 1.50 per kWh/month listed previously as average prices.

Homeowners and owners of natural gas vehicles shouldn’t worry about any incoming gas price hikes: The amount of gas that is directed to homes and vehicles accounts for less than 5% of the country’s total consumption, dwarfed by the share taken up by industry and electricity production, our source told us. Because of this, prices for homes and natural-gas powered vehicles are expected to stay put for now.

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