Egypt’s auto production to grow, but at a slower pace than its neighbors: The country’s vehicle production is expected to witness steady increases over the coming years, but will likely fall behind regional competitors, according to a recent BMI report.

The numbers for the year ahead: The report expects Egypt to produce 37k vehicles in 2024, putting the country second place in the region above Algeria with an expected 17.4k vehicles and way behind Morocco in first place with 614k vehicles — marking it as the largest auto producer in the whole of the continent.

Long-term outlook shows modest growth: BMI sees Egypt's vehicle production growing at an average annual rate of 11.4% between 2024 and 2033, reaching just under 83.5k vehicles by the end of the forecasted period.

The rationale: BMI attributed its “strong” vehicle production output in 2024 to “anticipated FX stabilization period and the easing of import restrictions.” Also, “the reduction in currency fluctuation will provide much-needed certainty for manufacturers, which will support a more stable business landscape in which to scale up production.”

Remember: The Madbouly government has been working to localize the auto industry, introducing the Egyptian Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP) in 2022, which will offer incentives to auto players with the aim of localizing the industry and its feeder industries, with the aim of enhancing the country’s existing assembly and manufacturing capabilities — and of encouraging new investment to the sector.

But Algeria and others look set to outpace us: While Egypt’s forecast represents significant growth, it lags behind the more optimistic growth forecasts for other North African markets. Algeria is expected to see production grow an annual 36.5% over the period between 2025-2033 and have an annual output of 236.7k units by end of the period — over 180% more than what Egypt is expected to produce. According to this trajectory, Algeria is expected to nudge Egypt out of its place as North Africa’s second largest auto producer by 2026. Morocco is expected to expand output 6.8% every year until 2033 and remain at the top of the leader board with an eventual annual output of 1.1 mn vehicles.

SPEAKING OF- Chinese auto players eying Egypt: Representatives from 20 Chinese automotive companies are set to land in Egypt in the coming days to look into how they can sell their models in Egypt in the coming period, business development head at the Egyptian Auto Feeders Association Ehab Mohamed told Al Mal. The representatives will be meeting with a number of local car agents and importers to look into how they could enter the local market.

Read more: We dove into the government’s efforts to localize the auto industry in an InsideIndustry published earlier this week.

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