Good morning, friends. We are wrapping up this short work week with a brisk issue led by the latest from the Act Financial IPO.

And don’t forget, we’re in line for a long weekend. The public, private, and banking sectors will have the day off tomorrow in observance of the 23 July Revolution.

** EnterpriseAM Egypt will also be taking a break from your inboxes starting tomorrow, but we will be back in your inbox at our customary time on Sunday.

GDP WATCH-

Egypt could be looking at a 4.0% growth this fiscal year -Reuters poll: Economists see Egypt’s GDP growing at 4.0% clip this fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of 17 economists. This is lower than the 4.35% forecasted in April and the 4.15% estimated in January. “The overall net impact is that economic growth will be weaker this fiscal year,” said Capital Economics’ James Swanston, pointing to tighter fiscal and monetary policy and a weakened EGP.

“There are reasons to be more optimistic on GDP growth from FY 2025-26 onward,” he added. Economists see growth rebounding to 4.99% in fiscal year 2025-26.

Less optimistic than most: The forecast is slightly below the 4.1% the IMF has penciled in for the year — the fund revised our growth forecast down 0.3 percentage points last week — and the new government’s 4.2% growth target.

Other notable forecasts: Analysts see the EGP falling to 49.50 against the greenback by the end of the current fiscal year and 52.50 by June 2026. They also see headline inflation cooling to 20.5% by the end of FY 24-25 and 12.05 by the end of the following year and the central bank cutting rates so the overnight lending rate sits at 21.25% by June 2025 and 15.25% by June 2026.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- More Emirati investments ahead? The UAE is also looking to set up new investment projects in Egypt via various financing methods, UAE’s ambassador to Egypt Mariam Al Kaabi said during a meeting with Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk. She pointed out that Egypt has the potential to become a commercial and industrial hub covering the needs of African and European markets.

#2- Efforts to improve Egypt’s investment climate: Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Hassan El Khatib has proposed a number of measures to help improve Egypt’s investment climate, facilitate procedures, and boost priority sectors. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly instructed him to present the proposed measures during the next meeting of the cabinet’s Economic Ministerial Group, according to a cabinet statement.

DEBT WATCH-

CBE soaks up additional liquidity from the market: The Central Bank of Egypt yesterday accepted bids from 32 banks for EGP 947.1 bn in fixed-rate deposits at a rate of 27.75% during its weekly fixed-rate auction, according to data on its website.

PSA-

WEATHER- The heatwave continues in Cairo today, with a high of 38°C and a low of 28°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 35°C and a low of 25°C.

FACT CHECK- No unusual activity on our Mediterranean: The National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics released a statement saying that it hasn’t detected any unusual seismic activity after news spread that Egypt’s Mediterranean beaches could be hit with a tsunami following a forecasted earthquake in the eastern Mediterranean basin.

Still, be careful. Six governorates overlooking the Mediterranean — including Alexandria and Port Said — are on high alert following a “noticeable recession in seawater.”

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue penciled in for September: Egypt will be hosting the Egypt-US Strategic Dialogue next September as part of a broader effort by the two countries to “strengthen mutual cooperation,” according to a statement. The strategic dialogue in Cairo will be followed by a meeting of the US-Egypt Joint Economic Committee in Washington.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Our politics-heavy summer continues, with the presidential candidacy of Kamala Harris again dominating front pages after her debut rally saw her bash Trump — who she says is “focused on the past” and would lead a country “of chaos, fear, and hate” — and a Reuters / Ipsos poll sees her fractionally ahead of Agent Orange with voters.

Harris led Trump 44% to 42%, while Joe Biden polled two points behind his archrival just before dropping out of the race. (The caveat: The Reuters poll has a margin of error of ±3%…)

Harris now has a shortlist of frontrunners from which to pick her running mate, according to Democrat donors, who say Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona senator Mark Kelly (a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut), and North Carolina governor Roy Cooper are front-runners. Possible VP candidates are being vetted by Barack Obama’s former attorney-general, Eric Holder, the Financial Times reports.

AND- US Senator Bob Mendnez said he would resign on 20 August after he was convicted on corruption charges, which included bribery and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt’s government. (Reuters)

OVER IN FRANCE- French President Emmanuel Macron said he will not name a new government until after the Olympics are over to avoid “disorder,” rejecting the left’s pick for a prime minister, a civil servant named Lucie Castets. He said the New Popular Front does not have a majority within the National Assembly to ensure a “stable government capable of action” during a TV interview.

AND IN GAZA- Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington, where he signaled that a ceasefire could be near as he prepares for talks with Biden (and Trump on Friday) after making an address to Congress. Senior Hamas officials say he’s still stalling, Reuters reports. Israeli strikes have killed at least 80 people this week as tanks advanced deeper into Khan Younis.

IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- Earnings and AI news are getting the most ink:

#1- Tesla reported its lowest net income margin in five years and lower-than-expected earnings on the back of a drop in automotive sales. (CNBC | Reuters)

#2- Google parent Alphabet beat analyst expectations as a rise in digital ad sales and higher demand for cloud computing boosted revenues. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

#3- ON THE AI FRONT- Meta has released a new version of its AI model, Llama, that it claims rivals offerings from OpenAI and Google — with Mark Zuckerberg saying it can solve complex math problems and digest books in one go.

Zuckerbeg penned a letter defending open source AI and arguing that it will “make the world more prosperous and safer” and that what’s more dangerous is keeping AI in the hands of a small number of companies.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING- Sunday was likely the world’s hottest day on record, according to preliminary data.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We take a look at the Madbouly cabinet’s infrastructure priorities — particularly in the realms of health, housing, telecom, and digitization.

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