IMF is in discussion with the new cabinet over its policies for the years to come

More discussions with the IMF are underway: The IMF is in discussions with the new Madbouly cabinet over its policy and goals for the coming three years, a government official told Enterprise, adding that these talks should wrap up next week.

ICYMI: The new cabinet, sworn in earlier this month, has big plans for the years to come between protecting national security and Egypt’s foreign policy, building up the Egyptian citizen, building a competitive economy that attracts investments, and achieving political stability. Dive deeper into the econ aspect of the government’s plans here.

On the agenda: The two sides are in discussion over monetary and financial policies, as well as policies related to public spending, our source said. The timeline of slashing fuel subsidies is an important point of discussion, seeing how heavily it weighs on the state budget — the government increased fuel subsidies allocations in FY 2024-2025 to EGP 154.5 bn, up 29.4% from 119.4 bn last fiscal year.

REMEMBER- We are sitting tight waiting for the Fund’s Executive Board to discuss the third review of our USD 8 bn loan program, after its meeting was pushed back to 29 July to “finalize some details,” according to IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack. The greenlight from the board will see the Fund disburse a fresh USD 820 tranche into the state coffers and will allow Egypt to apply for an additional USD 1.2 bn in climate finance. Egypt and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the third review early last month.

More details on the delay: Our sources attributed the delay to “technical procedures,” without providing any further detail on the matter.

One of the reasons behind the delay: The IMF likely pushed back its meeting as it adopts a wait-and-see approach regarding fuel subsidy cuts — the government’s fuel pricing committee is expected to meet this month to review pricing. The committee last hiked petrol prices in March, increasing them by 8-10% and diesel prices by 21.2%.

Energy price hikes next: The government is conducting studies to determine the percentage increase to be introduced on electricity and petroleum products, taking the central bank’s inflation targets into account, the source said. The hikes will be carried out gradually and we can expect an announcement of the government’s plan in this regard “very soon,” they added. The government could also raise the natural gas prices for the industrial sector, after holding them steady for years.

Remember: We’ve been anticipating fuel and electricity price hikes for months now, especially after Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly signaled that we could see more fuel price hikes as the state looks to “restore balance” between cost of production and end price by the end of 2025. He also said that the Electricity Ministry will prepare a plan as to how the government can completely cut its spending on electricity subsidies over the coming four years.

But don’t hold your breath: The government will not move forward with electricity price hikes before September as it works to resolve the electricity crisis, an Electricity Ministry source told us last month.

Oil hedging still in play: The source confirmed that the government intends to continue hedging against fluctuating oil prices during the current fiscal year, adding that the measure could be extended to other strategic commodities.

Refresher: The former government used hedging contracts throughout the fiscal year 2023-24 to hedge against rising oil prices. Additionally, former Assistant Supply Minister Ibrahim Ashmawy first floated the idea of hedging contracts to guard against expected volatility in the price of certain commodities in January, amid the disruption in the Red Sea.