Good morning, folks. After a relaxed start to the week, the local business news cycle had picked up and we’re struggling to fit it all into one issue. For you today, we’ve got a rundown of the new government’s priorities that Madbouly delivered to the House yesterday, the latest current account deficit data showing us that we still have a fair way to go, a deep-dive into the challenges facing our green hydrogen industry, and so much more.

DATA POINT-

Remittances from Egyptians abroad surged 73.8% y-o-y in May to USD 2.7 bn, according to a statement (pdf) from the central bank. On a monthly basis, remittances increased for the third consecutive month, rising 26.6%.

Remember: Egyptians abroad have started sending more of their remittances through official channels after the float of the EGP. Remittance inflows had fallen 30% y-o-y in 2023 on the back of a widening gap between the official rate and parallel market pushing many to send remittances into the country outside official channels. The government said it wants to raise remittances — one of Egypt’s biggest sources of FX — from Egyptian expats by 10% each year to reach USD 53 bn by 2030.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s starting to heat up again in Cairo today, with a high of 38°C and a low of 27°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Temperatures are also on the rise in Alexandria and the North Coast, with a high of 33°C and a low of 22°C.

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HAPPENING TODAY-

Retail and institutional investors can start lining up for a piece of Act Financial: The company is offering some 32% of the company — 360 mn shares — in what will be the first IPO the EGX sees in a year. The subscription period for retail investors is set to take place between 9-23 July, while institutional investors will get a chance to subscribe between 9-18 July. The shares will be offered at a price of EGP 2.90 per share, with the company aiming to raise around EGP 1.04 bn through the offering.

The details: Retail investors — who will be offered 60 mn shares — can subscribe to a minimum of 1k shares and a maximum of 1.75 mn shares, EGX disclosure (pdf). Institutional investors — who will be offered 300 mn shares — can subscribe with a minimum of 1.75 mn if they’re qualified individual investors, while financial institutions can subscribe with a minimum of 3.5 mn shares each.

Post IPO: Act Financial plans to use the EGP 1 bn raised from its IPO to invest into three EGX-listed companies this year, Managing Partner Mostafa Abdel Aziz told Enterprise last week. The company is also exploring potential investments in six non-listed local companies with the hopes of eventually listing them on the EGX, Abdel Aziz added, saying that the company has met with over 100 non-listed companies so far.

Advisors: Zilla Capital will manage the IPO, Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy will act as the company’s legal advisor, Baker Tilly will provide auditing services, and Financial Advice Corporate Transactions will be the independent financial advisor to the transaction.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Fresh inflation data incoming: Capmas and the CBE are expected to publish June’s inflation data tomorrow. Policy makers and the business community are hoping for the recent downward trend in inflation levels to continue after annual urban inflation cooled to its lowest level in 16 months in May.

The polls are in: Annual urban inflation is expected to cool 0.6 percentage points for the fourth consecutive month to 27.5%, according to a median prediction of 17 analysts polled by Reuters. Analysts mostly expect that the continuing slowdown in food and beverage prices will help offset the hiking of subsidized bread prices by 300% that came into effect at the beginning of the month.

But not everyone agrees: Barclays has penciled in headline inflation rising 4.2 percentage points to 32.3%, pointing to subsidized bread price increases adding considerable inflationary pressures until the end of the year.

Risks remain: Going forwards, price rises for fuel, gas, meds, fertilizers, and other items could “exert upward inflation pressure, potentially disrupting the anticipated downward trend, according to economist Mona Bedier.

While for core inflation: Core inflation — which excludes volatile items like food and fuel — is forecasted to fall 0.4 percentage points to 26.7%, according to a median of nine analysts polled by the newswire.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

IMF to look into lowering penalties on its biggest borrowers: The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board will meet on Monday to discuss options to lower the surcharges that it levies on its biggest borrowers, Bloomberg reports, citing anonymous sources. The move comes after several countries raised concerns that the penalties were becoming too hefty in light of higher interest rates and inflation, arguing that they deplete funds needed for basic necessities like food and healthcare.

The local angle: Egypt is the Fund’s third largest debtor with USD 10.3 bn of outstanding credit, behind Ukraine and Argentina. Egypt is forecast to pay the IMF USD 370 mn in surcharges in the next five years, marking the country as the world’s third largest payer of surcharges.

By the numbers: On top of its basic rate of 500 bps, the Fund imposes a surcharge of 200 bps on outstanding loans above 187.5% of a country’s quota, hiking the penalty up to 300 bps if a loan remains above this percentage for three years. In combination with higher interest rates across the globe, some IMF loans have a total rate of over 8%, a two-times increase from before Covid, according to the business information service.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet day in the foreign press, as elections in Europe wrap and heads of state head over to Washington for the Nato summit.

Political analysts are saying it’s a “make-or-break” week for Joe Biden’s re-election as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess, and today could be an inflection point as Democrats in the Senate hold a caucus meeting at which the way forward for Biden will be Topic #1.

“Go ahead. Challenge me at the convention,” Biden thundered on the call with the hosts of his favorite morning show. “Any of these guys don’t think I should, run against me. Announce for president.” The Financial Times has more on what it’s calling his new “offensive” to keep his campaign.

All eyes will now be on Washington, which plays host to the Nato summit. Russia launched its biggest attack in Ukraine in months on the eve of the summit, hitting a children’s hospital and killing at least 36 people, Reuters reports.

And there’s still no word from France, where centrist and left-wing parties are jostling to see how they can put together a government, France24 notes.

AND IN BUSINESS- There are still folks outside the Middle East committing to venture capital as an asset class. HongShan, formerly the China unit of Sequoia Capital, has raised a USD 2.5 bn, RMB-denominated fund to invest in Chinese startups.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a look at the challenges facing our green hydrogen ambitions and how they can be tackled.

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