Is a new pandemic on the horizon? The next global outbreak will probably be caused by a strain of the flu, suggests a new study cited in The Guardian. Long-term research has shown that the influenza virus has been constantly mutating and evolving, returning each year as a “little pandemic,” says University of Cologne’s Jon Salmanton-García, who conducted the study.

The international study, which will be made public in the coming few days, surveyed 187 senior scientists. Almost 60% of the disease experts polled believe that the next pandemic will be caused by a strain of the flu, and 21% believe that the strain — referred to as Disease X — is still unidentified by science and will appear out of the blue, much like covid-19.

Should we be worried? Scientists are apprehensive, but are quick to note that vaccines against many flu strains, like H5N1 have already been developed. The H5N1 virus, known as the avian flu, saw an outbreak in tandem with covid, and has an “extraordinarily high” mortality rate, says the World Health Organization. Now affecting birds, humans, and cattle, the threat of the virus has experts on high alert. While developing a vaccine for a new strain of the flu on the fly would present logistical issues, virologist Ed Hutchinson says that it won’t have to be developed from scratch as was the case for covid.

That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be prepared. Many of our “old bad habits” have been making their way back, says Salmanton-García. People have gone back to coughing and sneezing into their hands, leaving the house without a mask despite being sick, and generally taking no precautions to deter infection. Practices learned in covid’s wake can help us, not just with resurgences of covid, but in shielding ourselves from H5N1 and avoiding the potential new pandemic.

Tags: