Good morning, friends, and welcome to a holiday-shortened week as we prepare for the three-day weekend starting this Thursday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day. We have a busy issue for you this morning, so we’re going to jump straight in.

BUT FIRST- Could padel emerge as the “next squash”? It may be early days, but it’s hard not to wonder after the men’s national team surprised organizers with a very strong first-ever appearance at the FIP Seniors World Padel Championships 2024, which wrapped up yesterday in Alicante, Spain.

Our friend Helmy Ghazi distinguished himself as more than a banker’s banker this weekend, anchoring the +50 team. Longtime readers will also remember Helmy as our partner in crime in our most-read story ever: Our five-step recipe to boost exports + FDI (and make sure Egypt never has to ask the IMF for another cent).

Egypt finished in 20th place overall after a very tight 3-2 loss to Great Britain yesterday.

Egypt was the first Arab country to appear in the Senior World Padel Championships, alongside Qatar. Egypt fielded men’s teams in the +35, +40, +45, +50, and +55 age ranges after nationwide tryouts, and organizers tell us they hope to send both men’s and women’s teams to the championship in 2025.

Surprising nobody who follows the sport: Argentina and Spain faced off in every single men’s final — while Spain and France made it to the finals of every women’s age bracket.

The view from Alicante: “We were proud to step into the seniors padel World Cup — it’s the beginning of a journey for our seniors team and was an amazing chance to show the world the spirit of Egyptian padel,” Ahmed Ghatwary, president of the Egyptian and Arab Padel Federation, told us late yesterday.

Egypt is a world squash powerhouse because of a strong grass-roots program and consistent corporate support for the sport. It would be wonderful to see another racquet sport mentioned in the same breath.

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PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another summery and dry day in Cairo today, with a high of 29°C and a low of 17°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 24°C and a low of 16°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The next stage for Egypt is to “to accelerate the pace of reform” by achieving four goals, IMF Middle East and Central Asia head Jihad Azour told Asharq Business on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetup in Washington (watch, runtime: 15:51).

The big four:

  • The first of Azour’s prescriptions was to reduce the risks to the Egyptian economy. “The flexibility of the exchange rate contributes to this matter,” Azour explained.
  • We also have to “reduce the burden on the Egyptian citizen” by bringing down inflation. “Intervention and tightening monetary policy are essential” for this, the IMF’s regional head added.
  • Number three on Azour’s list was “raising the level of social protection.”
  • Last but not least was the all-too-familiar call to promote the private sector and job creation.

#2- Lower non-subsidized bread prices fresh out of the oven: The price of non-subsidized bread will start falling starting today until it reaches normal levels, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and the chief of the bakeries division of the General Federation of Chambers of Commerce Abdullah Ghorab said during a presser last week. An 80 gram piece of unsubsidized bread will now be sold for EGP 1.5 and a 35 gram loaf of fino bread will now sell for EGP 1.

It’s not just bread that is getting cheaper, say the government: Commodities in general are down 22% and basic commodities are down by about 27%, Madbouly added, without giving a time frame for his calculations.

Remember: The most up-to-date data on where food prices are going shows that food and beverage price inflation eased 5.9 percentage points from the month before to 45.0% y-o-y in March. Analysts and policy makers will be eagerly awaiting inflation data for April out early next month, with cautious optimism that the end of Ramadan inflationary pressures on food and the first full month post-float could confirm that we’re making serious headway on bringing food inflation down and slowly becoming the “inflation targeting regime” that the government and Fund have been working towards.

Importers, beware :The state has been seizing goods in ports that have not been claimed for over a month since 1 April, Madbouly said. This follows the government reinstating previously suspended regulations regarding unclaimed goods in ports, which were suspended for some time due to the lack of FX liquidity in the country preventing importers paying for their goods.

IN THE HOUSE TODAY-

The House is in session: MPs will reconvene today through Tuesday to discuss next year’s draft budget, the new Unified Ins. law, and potentially a new cabinet lineup.

#1- We could see a ministerial reshuffle this week: Many MPs believe that a cabinet reshuffle is set to take place in a few days and they will be tasked with discussing and voting on the new team this week.

Some think that Madbouly and some of the cabinet economic group have nothing to worry about: Well-connected MP and TV presenter Mostafa Bakry sees Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly alongside a number of ministers of the cabinet economic group staying in their positions. The shuffle may include 15 ministries, according to Bakry (watch, runtime: 3:30).

#2- A new draft Unified Ins. law: The representatives will also discuss a new government-drafted Unified Ins. law today, which aims to draw up new and comprehensive rules for regulating the ins. industry and market and widen compulsory ins. Coverage.

IN THE HOUSE TOMORROW-

Draft budget goes to the House: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Planning Minister Hala El Said will head to the House tomorrow to give statements on the draft state budget and socioeconomic development plan for FY 2024-25. The state budget and development plan will be voted on before the start of the next fiscal year on 1 July.

What we know about the budget so far: In its preliminary budget report, the Finance Ministry cut growth projections to 4.0% and raised inflation targets to an average of 18.1%. It also sees the budget deficit widening by 0.1 percentage point to 7.3%.

Want more? Read our full coverage of the preliminary budget report here.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- A chance to hear how AI is reshaping business: The British Egyptian Business Association is hosting a panel discussion on the challenges and potential of AI with Communications Minister Amr Talaat offering the keynote address on Tuesday 23 April at the Conrad Cairo Hotel.

Taking to the stage for the panel discussion will be IBM Egypt General Manager Marwa Abbas, MP Sahar Al Bazar, British University in Egypt provost Guy Daly, Sequence Ventures CEO Mohamed Fahmy, and Falak Startups’ head of venture growth Tarek Seif El Nasr, with by N Gage Consulting Chairman Karim Refaat as moderator. Find out more about how to register for the event here.

#2- Prepare to turn your clocks an hour forward: Daylight saving time starts on Friday, 26 April. You’ll be losing an hour’s sleep as clocks jump forward one hour until the final Thursday of October.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

War and politics dominate the front pages of the global business press as the media takes stock of Israel’s limited strike on Iran this Friday — the third time that the two sides exchanged fire in less than a week. Iran downplayed the strike, appearing eager to close this chapter of its long-running covert battle with Israel.

Last week may have marked a turning point: The open exchange of attacks brought a decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel into the open, the Financial Times and Bloomberg warn, and the worry is that “limiting escalation will get harder over time.”

MEANWHILE- The United States is seeking an alliance with the UAE on artificialintelligence. Last week’s USD 1.5 bn investment in G42, the Abu Dhabi-based AI leader, could be the first of a number of big agreements as American officials look to advance talks with Google and OpenAI, too.

AND- The US House of Representative has passed a USD 95 bn aid bill for Ukraine and Israel and will send the measure on to the Democrat-dominated Senate, meaning it’s likely to become law. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is warning China over weapons exports to Russia. And Hamas is mulling whether to move its political headquarters out of Qatar to Oman or a second Arab state.

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