Good morning, everyone. It’s been a busy week for growth forecasts with the IMF, World Bank, and now the government offering up their predictions for the current fiscal year and the next. While the government is more optimistic about the current fiscal year, it’s the Fund and World Bank who are more optimistic about the coming fiscal year — so let’s hope they’re both half right.

In today’s issue, we’ve also got news of Palm Hills Developments partnering up with Cleopatra Group for a project on the North Coast, GB Auto’s new venture in Jordan, and much, much more for you this morning.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

PSA-

#1- We have another short work week ahead: The public and private sectors will beoff on Thursday, 25 April in observance of Sinai Liberation Day, according to a cabinet statement.

#2- EgyptAir has temporarily suspended flights between Cairo and Dubai after Tuesday’s bout of torrential rain in the UAE flooded Dubai International Airport, the company said yesterday. Flights will resume when “weather conditions in Dubai improve and aircraft are allowed to land and take off again,” the national flag carrier said.

WEATHER- It’s slightly cooler in Cairo today, with a high of 30°C and a low of 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

And it’s a whole lot cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 24°C and a low of 16°C. It’s also pretty sandy in Alex and along the North Coast westwards, so be careful on the roads with limited visibility.

And the sun will continue over the weekend, with highs of around 30°C in the capital and the cooler weather continuing for our friends on the Mediterranean with temperatures reaching the mid 20s.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Is Ajlan & Bros Holding eyeing up Ras Gamila? Saudi Arabia’s Ajlan & Bros Holding has indicated its interest in developing an integrated tourism project in Ras Gamila in a letter to the government, reported Cairo 24, citing unnamed sources it says are in the know.

Remember: Rumors that Egyptian and Saudi authorities were in talks over the development rights of Ras Gamila circulated last month around the same time that the USD 35 bn Ras El Hekma agreement was unveiled. Talks are “still at early stages and could fall through,” sources told Bloomberg.

#2- Debt pressures continue to weigh on Egypt despite recent bailouts: Egyptian authorities are in talks with the central bank, pension funds, and the main state health insurer in order to delay repayments of some of its domestic debt owed to those entities, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said in an interview according to Bloomberg. The aim is to extend the average debt maturity to 4.5-5 years by June 2028, compared to 3.3 years at the end of this fiscal year, said Maait. The Finance Minister didn’t specify how much of the debt would be restructured.

What gives? The aim is to improve Egypt's financial stability and flexibility by managing its debt more effectively, because — despite securing at least USD 57 bn of finance in the less than two months from the IMF, EU, World Bank, and Ras El Hekma agreement this year — Egypt faces a heavy debt burden, with half of state revenues going into interest payments alone.

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HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day four of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings and a number of our ministers are in Washington to take part in the meetings and make the rounds. Check out the full schedule for the gathering — which kicked off in Washington on Monday and runs through 20 April — here.

On the agenda today: CBE Deputy Governor Rami Aboul Naga and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat are booked in for separate conversations with the Atlantic Council.

WORTH NOTING FROM DAY THREE OF THE IMF AND WORLD BANK’S SPRING MEETUP-

#1- Maait talks health, private sector development: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait discussed declining public health indicators as a result of international tensions, falling funding, and food scarcity during a round table with his African counterparts on the sidelines of the event. Maait also urged for more coordination across the continent to develop African economies, make most effective use of local resources, and help build resilience against external shocks. Egypt’s private sector is “active,” he said, and it intends to invest more into African countries and forge stronger intra-continental ties.

#2- Al Mashat + G24: International Cooperation Minister Al Mashat called for the international community to support debt swaps and other alternative financing methods to support the green transition in developing countries. The minister also argued that funding climate efforts should not come at the expense of a focus on tackling poverty and promoting “shared prosperity.” She also addressed the massive financing gap in global infrastructure and outlined Egypt’s efforts to attract private sector investments into infrastructure projects via its NWFE program, during a separate event hosted by the Global Infrastructure Facility.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1-Attention, cybersecurity geeks: The people behind the FDC Summit and the Egypt Cybersecurity & Defense Intelligence Systems (CDIS) expo are launching a new joint cybersecurity and digital transformation event from 19-21 May, at Egypt International Exhibitions Centre, according to a press release (pdf). Titled Egypt International Summit for Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity, the three-day event will focus on integrating efforts and raise awareness on the importance of cybersecurity and digital transformation.

#2- Prepare to turn your clocks an hour forward: Daylight saving time starts on Friday, 26 April. You’ll be losing an hour’s sleep as clocks jump forward one hour until the final Thursday of October.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

DATA POINT-

Investors have pledged some USD 894 mn in investments into the Suez Canal Economic Zone — 40% of which came from China — during 1Q 2024, according to a SCZone statement.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD: WAR?

To use the language of the weather forecasters: It’s a mixed day for news around the world, with no single story holding sway and little but clouds in the sky.

#1- Mattering most to our corner of the world: Israel’s allies are increasingly convinced that it will respond militarily — in one form or another — to Iran’s Sunday missile and drone attack.

“It is clear that the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope that they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible,” British Foreign Minister David Cameron said yesterday as he headed into a meeting with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, who yesterday warned Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (also in Tel Aviv for a visit) that “we will make our own decisions.” G7 nations have still not announced the sanctions on Iran that they hope might convince Netanyahu to sit tight.

MEANWHILE- Iran is readying its air force and said its navy will start escorting Iranian commercial ships in the Red Sea as it prepares for an Israeli attack on its territory or allies.

ANDِ- Some oil traders are wagering that crude will be trading at USD 250 a barrel by June, as risks of a wider regional war continue to grow, Bloomberg reports. Despite the hype in some trading circles, Brent was trading ending the day 3.0% lower at USD 87.29 a barrel when markets closed yesterday.

#2- Ceasefire talks on Gaza seem as stalled as ever (Egypt and Qatar are mediating the negotiations) and Iran-backed Hezbollah wounded 14 Israeli soldiers in a drone and missile attack yesterday in retaliation for Israeli attacks that killed Hezbollah troops.

WHILE ON THE DIPLOMATIC HOMEFRONT- Israel’s “outrageous use of military force” on Gaza represents a “watershed moment” in the region’s history, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said during a joint press conference in Cairo with Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa.

Looking ahead: The UN General Security Council will vote tomorrow on a Palestinian request for full membership in the world body. A “yes” vote would be tantamount to international recognition of Palestinian statehood, so expect a US veto. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas reportedly snubbed a request from the Biden administration to delay the request.

IN THE BUSINESS PAGES-

#3- Wall Street is tempering its expectations of a Fed rate cut this year, with most interpreting Jay Powell’s remarks earlier this week as meaning the first change in rates won’t come until September at the earliest. Bank of America economists, meanwhile, say there’s a “real risk” the central bank won’t cut rates until March 2025 “at the earliest.” CNBC has a solid roundup of sentiment.

That comes as IMF boss Kristalina Giorgieva warned overnight that “central banks should resist the temptation to lower their key interest rates too early and risk a resurgence of inflation and a fresh bout of policy tightening.”

MEANWHILE- US equities have now posted their longest losing streak so far this yea rafter the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell for a fourth day in a row.

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