Good morning, folks. We may have lost on the football field to Croatia last night, but we’ve got news of wins on the investment front to cheer you up this morning with a further EGP 5.6 bn worth of fresh investments coming our way after the SCZone handed out six new golden licenses.

But that’s not all, we’ve also got news for you today of chatter in the banking world that six state-owned banks are rumored to be in line for a leadership reshuffle — potentially “within hours,” one source told us. We’ve got a busy issue for you this morning, so let’s jump right in.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 6:11 pm in the capital city, and you’ll have until 4:21 am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Gov’t begins paying overdue arrears to international oil firms: The state has begun paying back nearly 20% of the arrears it owes to international oil companies (IOCs) operating in the country, with a structured plan now in place to clear the remaining debt in stages over the coming period, according to a cabinet statement. The government first signaled its intention to soon begin repayment two weeks ago.

How much are we talking? Reuters reported yesterday that the government could start paying back up to USD 1.5 bn of total arrears as soon as today, citing unnamed sources. The figures fairly match up with other media reports earlier this month claiming that the Oil Ministry has been working to pay out USD 1-1.5 bn in arrears — out of an estimated total of USD 6.25 bn.

This is a good sign of improving liquidity. Egypt, like many governments in a time of foreign currency shortage, allowed dues to IOCs to pile up. It’s easy enough to do: Oil drillers have generally sunk a ton of money into exploration and then to bring an asset into production. They’re loathe to leave, and doing so is typically not good for their financials. In that context, they will typically remain invested and producing at a basal level — even if they become increasingly vocal about having their receivables paid down. The Madbouly government paying IOCs suggests foreign currency inflows have been strong.

#2- The EGP weakened again yesterday against the greenback: After steadily gaining on the USD since the float of the EGP earlier in the month, the national currency has inched down against the greenback since Sunday from EGP 46 to around EGP 48 yesterday.

But worry not, a fluctuating exchange rate is a completely normal and healthy sign, which indicates that the central bank is serious about liberalizing the exchange rate, banking sources told Masrawy. The outlet's sources attributed the weakening of the EGP in the last few days to the sale of t-bills by foreign investors seeking to claim returns and the government’s arrear payments to oil companies.

#3- National Printing Company to hit the EGX in 2Q 2024: Qalaa Holding plans to list its printing subsidiary, the National Printing Company, on the EGX in the second quarter of this year, our friend Qalaa Holdings Managing Director Hisham El Khazindar told Al Borsa. The company has tapped EFG Hermes and CI Capital Holding to manage the IPO, which is part of a wider restructuring plan, and is still in the process of determining the size of the stake to put up for grabs.

Remember: We first heard of the National Printing Company’s plans for a stock market debut back in July. The EGX approved the temporary listing of the company last month.

More to follow? Qalaa Holding plans to take more of its subsidiaries public, El Khazindar said.

#4- The EGX could see three other new listings this year: Investment management firm Act Financial and two unnamed agricultural manufacturing firms are in talks with the EGX to list on the bourse this year, Asharq Business reports, citing EGX boss Ahmed El Sheikh (watch, runtime 8:09).

Remember: Local media reported earlier this week that Act Financial is working to launch anIPO on the EGX in 2Q 2024. We first heard of the plan in September 2022, when Managing Partner and Co-Founder Mostafa Abdel Aziz told us that the company would offer up to a 40% stake on the EGX by early 2023.

MORNING MUST READ-

“It’s different this time” for Egypt’s economy, says FIM Partners Head of Macro Strategy Charlie Robertson in a note seen by Enterprise. Robertson argues that Egypt is set to be the next emerging market to make a transition “from historic poverty into industrialisation and wealth” as it expands the sectors that bring in hard currency and sees an improvement in its budget and current account deficits.

The country’s ability to self-finance its own growth is expected to “rise significantly” on the back of a projected decline in the fertility rate. This drop would allow families to save money, driving up bank deposits and cutting the cost of money — i.e., interest rates. As local funding becomes more abundant and cheaper, budgetary strains will ease.

And local industry and FX-generating sectors are also witnessing growth, with the tourism sector reeling in over USD 14 bn (4% of GDP) in 12 months — well over the USD 13 bn pre-Covid peak. Robertson also points out that in FY 2017-18, only two types of merchandise exports — crude oil and petroleum products — topped more than USD 1 bn a year, but in the last fiscal year, the number of sectors bringing over USD 1 bn went up to five. Fertilizers brought in over USD 2 bn and ready-made garments and organic chemicals each brought in USD 1 bn and exports of household appliances and cotton textiles were also on the verge of breaking the USD 1 bn mark.

FIM has its money where its mouth is: The emerging- and frontier-market-focused investment manager has invested “in a large overweight position” in the country’s external debt because it “recognised the underlying improvement in the primary balance” and predicted last year that forthcoming FX injections would be “very large.”

And has taken a special interest in the local debt market: FIM is shifting from external debt to the “exciting trade” of local currency government debt, with the interest rate on t-bills in March dipping to below 29% from a previous 32%. “With an appreciating currency, that provides a very appealing USD return,” he says.

BUDGET WATCH-

Gov’t trims growth forecast for the next fiscal year again: The Madbouly government has downgraded its growth forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 4.0%, according to an Ittihadeya statement. The new target is 0.2 percentage points below projections penciled in last month.

Sneak peek of the Public Government Budget just in: The Public Government Budget — which includes both the state budget and the budgets of 40 economic bodies in its first phase — has penciled in revenues of EGP 4 tn and expenses of EGP 4.9 tn for the next fiscal year.

PSA-

#1- Your Uber commute is now going to cost you a little more: Ride-hailing service app Uber has raised its prices by 10% in Cairo and Alexandria in the wake of fuel price hikes last weekend, Al Borsa reports, citing messages sent to the company’s drivers informing them of the change.

#2-Women-led MSMEs are in line for financial support from the Micro, Smale, and Micro Enterprise Development Agency, with a newly launched funding initiative — dubbed Aziza — set to provide soft financing to existing women-led MSMEs, according to a statement from the agency. The initiative will focus on MSMEs in manufacturing and agriculture and provide training in addition to technical and marketing support. Entrepreneurs can enquire at any of the agency’s branches or by calling the hotline 16733.

#3- Attention, investors: The deadline for online reservation requests for 456 fully serviced plots of land for industrial purposes offered up by the Industrial Development Authority (IDA) is tomorrow. The IDA offered up the 1 mn sqm of land on its digital platform in a bid to boost industry localization and bridge the gap between exports and imports, the authority said when it first launched the initiative in January.

The details: The authority is offering plots of land in 10 governorates, with areas ranging between 200 sqm to 10k sqm. They can be bought through regular ownership contracts or usufruct agreements with 5% of the plot’s value paid annually.

Interested? Investors can make a reservation request from the authority’s online investmentportal.

DATA POINT-

FX receipts into Egypt reached USD 121.9 bn in FY 2022-23, down 24% from the USD 160.5 bn recorded in the previous year, according to data (pdf) from state statistics agency Capmas.

Outflows also saw a drop from the preceding year, dropping 27% to USD 135 bn on the back of a 76% y-o-y drop in payments on portfolio investments to USD 7.6 bn.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We speak to industry insiders about how the real estate sector is preparing to move on from a difficult period marred by fluctuating prices of essential inputs and difficulties pricing units, with the government’s decision to liberalize the exchange rate causing an immediate shift in investment prospects and the overall outlook of the market moving forward.

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