EFG Hermes Research's annual One-on-One Live Poll gauged the audience’s outlook forthe year in what is the only live poll we know of in frontier emerging markets. Over 400 attendees were given ten questions and tasked with anonymously responding to each one within ten seconds. Below is a roundup of the key takeaways from the poll.

Egypt came in second as the best MENA market for expected USD performance in 2024, receiving 25% of the votes counted. Leading the pack was Saudi Arabia with 44%, while Dubai came in third with 12% and Abu Dhabi in fourth with 8%.

FX issues have been keeping 28% of respondents awake at night, while 25% were lucky enough to report that they sleep well at night. For the rest of the group, 14% pointed to falling shares for their sleepless nights, 9% blamed rising labor costs, and 8% said supply chain issues.

Nearly half of respondents (44%) see the US Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 bps — over two separate 25 bps cuts — during the year. While, 26% think it could cut interest rates by up to 75 bps in three separate moves.

Oil prices will average around USD 80 per barrel this year according to 47% of respondents, which is in line with what most pundits — including Fitch Ratings and the US Energy Information Administration (IEA) — have forecast.

A 62% majority said they plan to invest more in their business this year than they did last year, while 19% plan to keep expenditure at the same level and another 19% plan to cut back.

Respondents were evenly split on which sectors will perform best in the MENA region this year, with 27% voting for real estate and an equal amount voting for healthcare. In third place was banks with 24% of the vote.

Other interesting takeaways:

  • Most (44%) think the US’ S&P 500 will outperform the MSCI EM index in USD terms, in a reversal of last year’s forecast ;
  • A majority (63%) of respondents see small and mid-cap stocks in Saudi Arabia outperforming large caps in line with recent trends;
  • Most (34%) majority of respondents would choose the “magnificent 7” stocks — Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla — to buy and hold for one year, while 33% would go for Saudi stocks.
  • Just over half of respondents (51%) also see Dubai real estate prices ending the year higher, after they notched a record increase last year on the back of an influx of foreign wealth and strong population growth.

Tap or click here (pdf) to see the full poll results.

OTHER NEWS FROM THE ONE ON ONE

  • EFG Hermes is cooking up aUSD 300 mn Gulf-focused education fund: EFG Hermes plans to launch a fund to invest USD 300 mn in education in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain. The company is eyeing a number of potential projects — including setting up, acquiring, and managing schools as well as edtech initiatives — with a view to complete these projects in 5-7 years.
  • EFG Hermes will advise 8-9 IPOs in the Gulf this year:The firm is currentlyworking on 5-6 IPOs for companies looking to list in the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the first half of this year and expects to get three other IPOs off the ground in Oman and Saudi Arabia in the second half of the year.
  • Ras El Hekma agreement is a turning point, said UN Special Envoy on Financing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Mahmoud Mohieldin, who hailed the transaction as the beginning of a pattern of Egypt attracting investments as opposed to borrowing.
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