S&P 500 jitters: While earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies over thenext 12 months are at a record high and have helped the index surpass the 5k mark for the first time earlier this month, the risk of Israel’s war on Gaza further disrupting Red Sea shipping and leading to larger consumer boycotts could potentially upend the index’s historic rally in the event that earnings forecasts have to be scaled back, writes Bloomberg.

A nightmare on Wall Street: Mentions of the Red Sea and geopolitics in American and European companies’ earnings calls have occurred as frequently in the first half of 1Q2024 as during the entirety of 4Q2023, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

ICYMI- Geopolitical uncertainty was the defining feature of forecasts for 2024 at the end of lastyear. A poll of 500 global institutional investors saw geopolitics as the biggest economic risk in 2024. Almost half of respondents (49%) cited “geopolitical bad actors” as a key concern.

MEANWHILE- Asian markets are mixed this morning as Shanghai opens for the first trading day since the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday. The Shanghai Composite and the Kospi are up, while the Hang Seng and Nikkei have slipped into the red in early trading. Europe looks set to open in the red later this morning, while the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P look set to open the trading day flat.

EGX30

29,126

+0.7% (YTD: +17.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.83

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

21.25% deposit

22.25% lending

Tadawul

12,502

+0.1% (YTD: +4.5%)

ADX

9,427

+0.2% (YTD: -1.6%)

DFM

4,259

+0.5% (YTD: +4.9%)

S&P 500

5,006

-0.5% (YTD: +4.9%)

FTSE 100

7,712

+1.5% (YTD: -0.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,766

+0.5% (YTD: +5.4%)

Brent crude

USD 83.47

+0.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 1.61

+1.8%

Gold

USD 2,024.10

+0.5%

BTC

USD 51,874.54

+0.1% (YTD: +22.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.3 bn (38% above the 90-dayaverage). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 17% YTD.

In the green: Beltone Holding (+5.6%), Oriental Weavers (+5.0%), and Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+3.4%).

In the red: Ibnsina Pharma (- 4.0%), Eipico (-2.1%), and AMOC (-1.4%).

CORPORATE ACTION-

FRA approves CIB capital increase: CIB will increase its issued and paid-up capital by EGP 236.6 mn to EGP 30.4 bn after the Financial Regulatory Authority approved the move, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The capital increase will allow CIB to issue the 23.7 mn shares it owes to its employees for the year 2020 under its employee stock ownership plan. The decision, which was approved by the board of directors (pdf) last week, now awaits go-ahead from the bank’s ordinary general assembly and the central bank.

QNB Al Ahli will pay out dividends worth EGP 1 per share on its earnings for 2023, itsaid in an EGX disclosure (pdf).

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