Analysts, fund managers no longer expect a US recession this year: Only a quarter of analysts and forecasters think the US is, already in, or will fall into a recession in 2024, according to an National Association for Business Economics survey (pdf). The survey found that 22% of those surveyed see a recession happening in 2025, while 36% see this happening in 2026 or later.

But inflation forecasts aren’t as rosy: Two thirds believe it is likely or very likely that the US will end the year with inflation still above 2.5% — 20% above the Fed’s target for the year.

Analysts are losing sleep over China’s economy, Israel’s war on Gaza, and the US elections: A commanding 97% of those surveyed thought there was a moderate to high probability that instability in the Middle East could adversely impact the economy by disrupting global supply chains and pushing Brent crude above USD 90 a barrel. Similarly concerning to analysts and forecasters was instability around the US elections, which 85% saw having a moderate to high probability of having a negative effect on the economy. China’s stagnant economy also had 90% of respondents worrying about its effect on the US economy.

ALSO WORTH NOTING- Bezos sells more Amazon shares: Multi b’naire Jeff Bezos has offloaded USD 4 bn worth of his shares in online shopping giant Amazon since Friday as part of a plan to sell 50 mn shares throughout the year — currently worth USD 8.4 bn. (BBC)

EGX30

28,875

+1.0% (YTD: +16.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.83

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

21.25% deposit

22.25% lending

Tadawul

12,439

+0.3% (YTD: +3.9%)

ADX

9,395

+0.5% (YTD: -1.9%)

DFM

4,223

+0.1% (YTD: +4.0%)

S&P 500

4,974

+0.4% (YTD: +4.1%)

FTSE 100

7,568

+0.8% (YTD: -2.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,709

+0.4% (YTD: +4.2%)

Brent crude

USD 81.60

-1.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 1.61

-4.7%

Gold

USD 2,004

-0.1%

BTC

USD 51,737

+4.6% (YTD: +22.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.0% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.3 bn (41.1% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 16.0% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+15.0%), Juhayna (+5.7%), and Eipico (+5.2%).

In the red: Talaat Moustafa Group (-2.5%), Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (-0.9%), and Edita (-0.3%)

Asian markets are comfortably in the green in early trading this morning as they start clawing back yesterday’s losses. Europe is looking to open in the green, while US stock futures were essentially flat at dispatch time this morning as Wall Street looks to build on yesterday’s modest rebound.

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