Good morning, friends. It’s a light news morning as we take stock of our various aches and pains.

There’s a toxic stew of seasonal viruses making the rounds right now, and a move to WFH for a few days as a firewall isn’t a horrible idea. Nearly one third of folks here at Enterprise have been or are down this week with symptoms including aches, pains, chest infections, fever and (for some) vomiting — sending the rest of us into a work from home footing through week’s end.

The culprit: There’s everything from the common cold to the latest strain of covid and respiratory syncytial virus making the rounds. The good people at the Health Ministry have the rundown.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- GCC bond issuances incoming? Don’t hold your breath.Emirati news agency WAM reports that Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told it his ministry is mulling a possible bond sale in the GCC as part of the Finance Ministry's eternal drive to diversify the country’s sources of financing. Maait made the remarks on the sidelines of the Annual Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai.

IN CONTEXT- Investors will want to see clarity on economic policy from officials here — and an IMF agreement in place — before there’s significant appetite for a fresh Egyptian paper. Egypt has in recent months sold Panda and Samurai bonds, but has given eurobond markets a wide berth. Maait is regularly asked about a possible GCC issuance — and his stock answer is “we’re considering it.” Borrowing in the GCC would be as expensive as a eurobond and will take plenty of time to put together.

The story comes as appetite for riskier (and less-explored corners of) EM debt is picking up: Ivory Coast, Kenya, and even tiny Benin have all taken eurobonds to market in recent weeks.

  • Benin last week sold bonds worth USD 750 mn — and the offering was nearly 7x oversubscribed.
  • Investors reportedly put in orders for almost 2x more than the USD 2 bn Kenya was looking to raise
  • Ivory Coast’s USD 2.6 bn issuance attracted demand of some USD 8 bn.

#2- Some banks are scrutinizing their loan books: Several local lenders have reportedly become more wary handing out loans to seven sectors identified as the most vulnerable to defaults amid the FX shortage and soaring inflation, writes Asharq Business, citing six banking sources. The news outlet isn’t unpacking what it means, but we suspect banks have become more watchful for NPLs and have less appetite for new loans to risky sectors. It names real estate, tourism, fertilizers, animal feed, rebar steel, cement, and ceramics sectors with the highest default risk.

Take its ranking of “default risk” with a grain of salt: Reduced appetite for real estate and tourism would be surprising to us. Anecdotally, there’s been flight of capital to real estate as folks have sought to hedge against devaluation by sinking cash into traditional stores of wealth — gold and hard currency, sure, but also property and cars. Developers with reputations in the market for delivery and fiscal prudence have had great pricing power of late, as have car dealers.

Banks backing away from tourism would be even more shocking: The industry has been booming. We’ve had great tourism numbers in the past 12 months thanks to smart promotion and strong appetite from global travelers for the “Egypt product.” There’s ample evidence that we’re replacing demand initially lost to the outbreak of war in Gaza.

What’s more: The tourism industry books hard-currency receipts — what bank doesn’t want those? — and benefits from smart incentives including an EGP 50 bn or more program minister Ahmed Issa unveiled in December that will see hotels upgrade properties and add room keys.

It’s natural for bankers to go over loan portfolios for signs of stress in a climate like this. Just don’t take it as a sign that the world is ending…

#3- Egyptians can’t be forced to pay tuition fees in USD:The Education Ministry issued a circular on Monday prohibiting private and international K-12 schools from collecting tuition fees in foreign currency from Egyptian students, Youm7 notes.

Sound smart: The central bank has effectively made it illegal for one party in Egypt to demand FCY-denominated payment for any other party in the vast majority of cases.

#4- And while we’re here: No, EgyptAir isn’t going to charge you in USD to book a flight — so long as that flight originates in Cairo and is booked in Egypt.The national flag carrier carrier isn’t charging in hard currency for flights booked in Egypt that originate here, it said. But you can absolutely expect to pay in foreign currency if they’re booking tickets abroad or for flights that originate in foreign cities.

AND- If you’re booking online from Egypt on EgyptAir’s website, you can only choose an Egyptian departure city. The only way we could get a quote on a New York to Cairo return flight was to fire up a VPN that put us in the United States. The currency for the sale? USD, naturally.

Keep it in perspective, though: Few businesses have as much FX exposure as EgyptAir. You’d do the same if you were them.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Burns + Shin Bet head in Cairo for Gaza ceasefire talks: CIA head William Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, and Qatari and Egyptian officials are meeting today to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza. We have the full story in the news well, below.

#2- It’s day two of the World Governments Summit in Dubai, where a number of Egyptian officials will take the stage. We have more in this morning’s news well, below.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Erdogan is set to make his first visit to Egypt in over a decade: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will land in Cairo tomorrow for the first time since 2012 to discuss “steps that can be taken to improve the Turkish-Egyptian relations and revitalize high-level bilateral cooperation mechanisms,” according to a statement from Turkey’s Communications Directorate.

On the agenda: Topping the agenda will be Israel’s war on Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories, Erdogan said in a televised address yesterday, Reuters wrote. The two sides will also discuss economy, trade, tourism, energy, and defense, he added.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will also land in Cairo tomorrow: The president of fellow Brics member Brazil will land in Cairo, according to a statement from the Brazilian president’s office. The statement mentions Egypt’s role in aiding the repatriation of Brazilian citizens from Gaza and highlighted Egypt’s position as one of its strongest trading partners in Africa. Lula will stay until Thursday, before heading off to Ethiopia.It’s the Brazilian leader’s second trip to our corner of the world in just over three months.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Akhbar Al Youm Economic Conference is taking place on Saturday, under the title “The Egyptian Economy … Challenges and Priorities,” bringing together government officials, economic experts, and investors. The conference will be held at Al Masa Hotel Nasr City at 9am. 

The Chicago Booth Executive Program has extended its application deadline to Thursday. The two-week program will kick off on 22 June and offer executives from the Egyptian public and private sectors the skills to help them “become better leaders for their organization and support Egypt’s growth in the years ahead.”

RED SEA WATCH-

Houthis claim first attack on an Iran-bound ship: The Houthis have launched attacks on a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel while it was making its way through the Bab El Mandeb Strait, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree posted on X yesterday. The Greek-owned Star Iris was carrying corn from Brazil to Iran, according to data from analytics firmKpler. “The Star Iris, like every Iran-bound bulker, had not diverted away from the Red Sea, perhaps unafraid of attacks from Iran-backed Houthis who could be considered 'friendly' given the vessel's destination,” Kpler’s Ishan Bhanu said. The two missiles caused “ minor damage.”

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It would not be inaccurate to say that it’s an achingly slow news morning globally — and what news there is out there is a dog’s breakfast.

Overall: Gaza peace talks in Cairo lead the front page of the Financial Times, while Bloomberg ’s lead piece adds that US President Joe Biden is pushing for a six-week break from fighting. The Wall Street Journal is obsessing over whether the US Supreme Court will hear Donald Trump’s challenge to a lower court ruling that denies him blanket immunity for crimes he may have committed as president.

We do, however, have a couple of nice SIGN OF THE TIMES pieces for your consideration:

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a look at the fishing industry in Egypt and what fishermen are doing to boost their sustainability and food safety to reopen EU exports.

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