Good morning, wonderful people. Egyptian officials and the president himself have been talking tough as Ethiopia and Somalia threaten to go to war over a stretch of coastline, causing many to worry about another conflict brewing in our neighborhood. But it’s not all bad news today, especially for Hassan Allam, who seems set to secure USD 75 mn from the EBRD to help fund its green energy projects.

But that’s not all today. We’ve also got news of Raya Auto’s new partnership with Chinese EV company XPeng, more news of — you guessed it — another bank joining the growing list of lenders that have cut FX withdrawals and purchases abroad, and much, much more for you today — so let’s jump into it.

PSA– Banks are also in line for a long weekend: Like the rest of us, banks will be off this Thursday, 25 January in observance of Police Day and the 25 January revolution, according to a statement (pdf) by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). As is the case for the public and private sectors, banks will get back to work on Sunday, 28 January.

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry andmanufacturing, we looked at what the government is doing to address tax and cost gaps caused by the FX crunch for industry players. One government official told us that companies that have significant foreign currency expenses are expected to account for a 26% price differential when calculating these FX costs to determine their tax base. You can check out the full story in our PM edition here.

THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME-

Egypt “will not allow any threat to Somalia,”President Abdel Fattah El Sisi saidduring a joint presser with his Somali counterpart Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (watch, runtime: 12:20). The two met to discuss Ethiopia saying it would recognise an independent Somaliland — Somalia’s breakaway region — in exchange for access to one of its seaports. “Do not try Egypt, or try to threaten its brothers, especially if they ask it to intervene,” El Sisi added — marking Egypt’s strongest stance on the issue. “Trying to seize a piece of land to control it is something no one will agree to,” he continued.

Remember: Egypt previously expressed its discontent with Ethiopia’s attempts to access part of Somilaland’s coastline after the landlocked country signed an MoU with Somaliland to use one of its ports. Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have been rocky for several years now following a heated dispute over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that continues to drag on after the fourth round of talks proved unsuccessful last month.

UN steps in to calm tensions: United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on Ethiopia and Somalia to start talks to resolve their dispute during a presser at the G77 plus China summit in Uganda yesterday (watch, runtime; 17:32). Somalia’s Foreign Ministry last week said that there was no room for mediation unless Ethiopia walks away from the agreement, following an earlier threat by Mohamud that the country is ready to go to war with Ethiopia over Somaliland.

El Sisi’s remarks received attention from: Reuters | The National.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

DeSantis throws in the towel, backs up Trump: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ended hispresidential bid Sunday, saying “it’s clear a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance.” DeSantis had emerged as Trump’s top challenger, but struggled to keep up in the primary elections as voters showed continued loyalty to the former president.

That just leaves Haley: With DeSantis out of the running, the race for the Republican Partynomination has essentially been whittled down to Trump against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. However, Trump continues to hold an 11 percentage point lead over Haley in the upcoming New Hampshire primary, according to the most recent CNN poll (pdf).

The news is getting lots of coverage in international press:Washington Post | The Guardian | FT | Politico | Associated Press | NYT | Bloomberg | Reuters

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Shoukry is in Brussels: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry landed in Brussels yesterdayahead of the EU-Egypt Association Council scheduled to meet tomorrow, according to a Foreign Ministry statement. Shoukry will lead the delegation for the meeting chaired by the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. The talks are set to discuss cooperation under the Egypt-EU partnership priorities 2021-2027 framework and address “human rights, security, counter-terrorism, and migration — as well as cooperation in economic and social issues — ranging from investments to environment and energy.”

Shoukry will also join his Saudi and Jordanian counterparts and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit to meet with EU officials and ministers from EU member states to discuss Israel’s war on Gaza, the future of the Palestinian issue, and avoid further regional escalation.

#2- BEBA is serving up cyber security for breakfast: The British Egyptian Business Association’s (BEBA) briefing breakfast on cyber security will start today at 9:30am CLT.

#3- The Senate is in session: The Senate will convene today to discuss a report about localizing the electronic games industry through partnerships with foreign investors with the aim of — let’s sing it together — shoring up FX revenues.

It’s also another busy day for Senate committees: The Economic and Financial Affairs Committee is set to review the latest figures on inflation and high prices, the Defence and National Security Committee will evaluate mega projects’ impacts on reinforcing national security and supporting socio-economic development, and the Health Committee will discuss the Egyptian Drug Authority’s role in supervising the pharma market. While measures to combat drug addiction will be discussed by the Human Rights Committee and the Industry Committee will take a look into the challenges facing the Egyptian industry.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK:

Biden adviser to touchdown in Cairo to talk Gaza war: Top Biden Advisor Brett McGurk is expected to visit Egypt and Qatar this week to advance negotiations aimed at releasing hostages held by Hamas and to discuss the war in Gaza, Axios reports. McGurk is set to meet with Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel on his visit Cairo penciled in to happen at some point this week.

Remember: Egypt, the US, and Qatar are urging Israel and Hamas to accept a multi-phased, 90-day plan that would see the release of hostages, an end to the war in Gaza, and ultimately, the establishment of a Palestinian state, the Wall Street Journal reports. But, “there’s a lot of hard work still ahead” before an agreement can be reached, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Friday.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1Putin is coming to town: Russian President Vladimir Putin will virtually attend the concrete pouring ceremony of the fourth reactor of the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant being built by the Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said during a presser on Friday. Peskov didn’t specify when the visit would take place. The Russian side is working with Egyptian officials to work out the details of the visit, he said, explaining that “it is a very important ceremony.”

CORRECTION: In our original report, we said that the Russian president would attend the ceremony in person. We have now amended the story.

#2 The new tourism chamber will soon be taking shape: The executive regulations for the establishment of tourism chambers and an adjacent union will be out within a week, Tourism Minister Ahmed Issa told the Senate yesterday. Board elections for the new chambers will take place shortly after the regulations are out.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

DATA POINT-

Egypt has already exceeded its local debt issuance target for FY 2023-2024, havingraised some EGP 2.7 tn from debt instruments in local currency — dominated by t-bill issuances — during the first half of the fiscal year, according to calculation by Asharq Business based on central bank data. The figure is a 59% y-o-y increase and 26% over the government’s expected targets for domestic debt issuances for the entire year.

MORNING MUST READ-

The New York Times dives into the ramifications of the Gaza war on Israel’s closest neighbors — Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan — whose already struggling economies were dealt a hefty economy blow from Israel’s seemingly never-ending war on Gaza. The war has cost the three countries an estimated USD 10.3 bn — 2.3% of their combined gross domestic product (GDP) — and driven 230k people into poverty. In Egypt, uncertainty about the war’s course is eroding business confidence and prompting tourists to cancel bookings, while conflict in the Red Sea triggered by Houthi attacks on vessels has driven Suez Canal Revenues down 40% y-o-y this month.

MARKET WATCH-

What’s behind the EGX30 hitting fresh record highs? The benchmark EGX30 index climbed 3.3% yesterday to close at 27.7k, its highest level ever, with market cap gaining around EGP 76 bn to end at nearly EGP 2 tn. The index is now up 11.4% YTD.

The bull run is fuelled by the weakening EGP: Investors are piling into the stock market to hedge against the devaluation of the EGP, financial markets expert Ihab Said told Enterprise. Stocks remain one of the most accessible investment options given the difficulty of purchasing greenbacks and the rising price of gold, Said said, adding that he expects the index to rise to new peaks over the coming period.

ICYMI:The EGP weakened to a record low against the greenback in the parallel market over the weekend, with local media reporting that the currency is changing hands at more than EGP 60.0 per USD, almost double the official exchange rate of EGP 30.96. But don’t forget that the usual caveats apply because the parallel market is by definition thin and opaque, making it difficult to figure out what a fair value is. The exchange rate on the parallel market depends on where you are, who you are, and what you’re buying.

WAR WATCH-

Netanyahu rejects proposal to end the war in return for the safe return of hostages: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused an agreements with Hamas that would see the 136 hostages held by the militant group freed in exchange for ceasing the war on Gaza, withdrawing from the enclave, and leave Hamas in power, writes Reuters. “I reject outright the terms of surrender of the monsters of Hamas,” Netanyahu said on Sunday, adding that he will not “compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.” Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told the newswire that Netanyahu’s rejections “means there is no chance for the return of the [Israeli] captives.”

AND- A grim milestone and reminder why the war needs to end now: The number of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in Gaza since 7 October has now surpassed 25k. (Reuters | AP)

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We dive into the new high school education system the government isworking on to eventually replace the academically-demanding Thanawya Amma.

Tags: