The World Bank has downgraded its Egypt growth outlook for the current fiscalyear due to the country’s ongoing economic problems, according to figures in its Global Economic Prospects reports (pdf). The lender expects real GDP growth to slow to 3.5% in FY 2023-2024, down 0.2% from its last forecast in October, when it penciled in growth of 3.7%. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.9% in FY 2024-2025.

It’s in line with other international monitors: The IMF and S&P Global penciled in 3.5-3.6% growth in FY 2023-24 late last year. The EBRD and Morgan Stanley are slightly more optimistic and set growth expectations between 4.2-4.5%.

While the government is even more optimistic: The Madbouly government sees the economy growing at a 4.7% clip in the coming fiscal year, from an estimated 3.0% in FY 2023-2024 and 4.2% the year before.

A regional conflict could further hit Egypt’s economy: “The conflict in the Middle East will likely exacerbate the inflation problem, eroding households’ purchasing power and constraining activity in the private sector,” the lender wrote. A heightened conflict will “intensify pressures on external accounts through implications on tourism, remittances, and oil trade balance.”

We’re still expected to be one of the top performers in the region for FY 23/24: The only countries with stronger projected growth rates for FY 23/24 are Libya (14.1%), Djibouti (4.7%), and Iran (4.2%).

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