Price hikes for state services are part of a reform package designed with the IMF inmind: The Madbouly government rang in the new year with a long list of price hikes for services and utilities ranging from the Cairo Metro and train fares to car registration fees. It is now raising electricity prices (see below) and is approving price hikes for industries from which it derives fees, tax income, or has ownership stakes. Among them: Telecommunications, where internet and mobile phone bills will rise after the National Telecom Regulatory Authority said it would allow mobile telecom operators to raise the prices of mobile and internet services by up to 16%.

It’s smart policy: The price hikes are part of cabinet’s bid to shore up finances and bridge the budget deficit, a senior Finance Ministry source told Enterprise.

All with the IMF in mind: Discussions with the IMF are in their “last phase” and they have been mainly centered around the Madbouly government’s revenue targets, ways to reduce the budget deficit, and address the exchange rate, our source told us, without elaborating further on any of the points. The two sides are expected to reach an agreement during the first quarter of the year. Egypt has been working to meet the conditions of a USD 3 bn IMF loan and potentially unlock a larger package that could be worth up to USD USD 10-12 bn bn, according to unconfirmed reports.

New social support measures incoming? The government is expected to increase social support measures in efforts to alleviate the impact of soaring inflation on vulnerable households, the source said, adding that the FinMin is expecting inflation to accelerate at a slower pace this year.

Remember: Egypt’s budget deficit almost doubled y-o-y in the first quarter of the current fiscal year as rising borrowing costs squeezed public finances. The deficit widened to 3.9% of GDP in 1Q FY 2023-24 from 2.1% a year earlier, largely due to the government’s spiraling interest bill.

What’s on the privatization agenda for 2024? “The privatization program will see a strong boost this year … the government is currently working on an updated list of companies earmarked for privatization and is on the lookout to add even more companies,” the source said. The Madbouly government, with assistance from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), has been looking into 50 state-owned companies not currently in the program to determine which sectors would be more attractive and lucrative for investors. The IFC has previously been said to see potential in airports, communications, ins., and banking, among other sectors.

The state could soon offload stakes in two banks: The government is expected to finalize stake sales in two state-owned banks soon, the source said. The agreements are currently in their “last stages” and we should hear more next month.

We have a number of banks in mind: The government was at one time looking to offload stakes in Banque du Caire (long an IPO prospect) and United Bank (where it could sell up to 100% to a strategic investor) before the new year. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has expressed interest in taking positions in both banks. Two months ago, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) were said to have agreed to offload a 20% stake each in AAIB in 2024. The government is also working to offload its 20% stake in Alexbank.

AND- We’re taking steps towards our first India bond issuance: Egypt is looking to tap the Indian debt market with a USD 500 mn bond issuance earmarked for this year, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said last month. “We have requested the necessary approvals from the relevant Indian authorities and we will start working on fulfilling the necessary requirements as soon as we’re granted those approvals,” our source said. The bond would be denominated in INR and mark the first time Egypt has issued debt in India.

But there’s no rush: “We have reached our [financing] goal for the first half of the current fiscal year,” our source said. The government in the past few months wrapped up two local-currency issuances in China and Japan, which raised the equivalent of USD 980 mn in CNY- and JPY-denominated debt. “We may issue new debt instruments in international markets, but that will depend on Egypt’s credit rating improving and indicators that global interest rates will inch lower,” he said.

WHAT DOES THE IMF THINK?

The prerequisites for our economic recovery: Egypt’s recovery depends on tacklinginflation and creating conditions that allow and encourage production and investments, IMF executive director Mahmoud Mohieldin told Al Arabiya this week (watch, runtime: 3:22).

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