Good morning, wonderful people. We close 2023 grateful for our families, health, and friends — and thankful that so many of you have opted to start your workday with us for another year. Writing to you every day is the highlight of our professional careers.

** This is the last issue of EnterpriseAM for the year. Along with our sister publications, we’re taking a publication break this Thursday through Monday to recharge and gear up for 2024. All of our publications will be back in your inboxes at their usual times on Tuesday, 2 January 2024.

PSA #1- Banks will be closed on Monday, 1 January, to mark the end of their fiscal year, and will return to work the following Tuesday, the Central Bank of Egypt said in a statement yesterday.

Take Sunday off — bridge. You’ve earned a long weekend, folks.

PSA #2- Keep your umbrellas close. We’re in for a rainy couple of days paired with some sandy winds today and tomorrow, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority. Expect daytime highs ranging from 20-22°C from today through Monday.and lows of 14-16°C.

RED SEA WATCH-

Another sign we’re inching closer to normalcy in the Red Sea: Shipping giant CMA CGM has resumed Red Sea transit and is “currently devising plans for the gradual increase in the number of vessels transiting through the Suez Canal,” it said in a statement. Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd will decide today whether to resume Red Sea transit or not, a company spokesperson told Reuters.

Following in Maersk’s footsteps: This comes shortly after AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest shipping line, said that it will resume operations in the Red Sea after the US-led naval coalition promised to patrol the Red Sea. AP Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and many other international shipping companies have paused transit through the Red Sea following repeated attacks from Yemen’s armed Houthi group on vessels bound for Israeli ports, passing through the waterway.

Don’t get too excited: The Iran-backed group yesterday launched a missile attack on a contained ship passing through the Red Sea, Reuters reported. A move which will likely cause shipping firms to stop and reconsider before allowing their vessels to sail through the waterway once again.

AND- Egypt, Jordan talk Red Sea navigation: Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in Cairo yesterday to discuss the importance of Red Sea navigation freedom, according to a Foreign Ministry readout.

ICYMI- Jordan activated the Arab Line — a sea-land route that links Aqaba in south Jordan with Nuweiba in Sinai — earlier this week, in a bid to ensure smooth shipping movement.

WAR WATCH-

Israel warns of a wider regional conflict: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that the war on Gaza could escalate into a wider regional conflict, as tensions with Iran continue to increase, FT reports. Gallant told a parliamentary committee that Israel is now involved in a “multi-arena war” spanning seven different areas — Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.

Close to home: Egyptian forces shot down a drone of unknown origins near Sinai’s Dahab yesterday, Reuters reported. This marks the second such incident in a month after Egyptian forces intercepted a flying object that crashed near the coast of Dahab two weeks ago.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Brace up for tight food supplies: Global staple foods are expected to continue to run short well into 2024 as supplies get strained by El Nino (drier and warmer than average weather), export restrictions, and strict biofuel mandates, reports Reuters. Wheat, corn, and soybean prices are pegged for losses in 2023.

Meanwhile, in our neck of the woods: Strategic reserves of wheat currently stand at 4.3 months, Supply Minister Ali Moselhy reportedly said yesterday. The ministry wants to buy 3.5 mn tons of wheat from next local harvest season.

#2- Iran ups production of highly-enriched uranium: Iran is increasing its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a months-long slowdown in output that began in June, Reuters reports, citing a statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran is enriching its uranium to up to 60% at a rate of about 9 kg a month — up from 3 kg during the slowdown, believed to be the result of secret talks between Iran and the US.

MORNING MUST-READ-

Two wars, and a handful of “civil disturbances,” 50 elections, and rich-world bias: Here’s how some of the smarter people in the Western press think you should be thinking about 2024:

#1- Volatility will be the theme of the year, the New York Times writes, noting that economic uncertainty and armed conflict are set to run headlong into a list of elections spanning from Taiwan and India to the US of A.

Huge things that matter to business — in Egypt, the region, and beyond — are at stake: Who gets elected and how much power they have will affect decisions ranging from how artificial intelligence will be regulated to “factory subsidies, tax breaks, technology transfers, the development of artificial intelligence, regulatory controls, trade barriers, investments, debt relief, and the energy transition.”

#2- Greenwashing by corporations is a sideshow in emerging markets. What really matters is that “Rich countries are using the green transition as an excuse to boost their own economies at the expense of developing ones.”

It’s not an activist speaking — but the head of the UN’s top trade body. “Many trade rules forbid policies that can be used by developing countries. And the developed countries have more fiscal space to subsidize in the areas that are good for ‘quote, unquote’, the environment,” UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan tells the Financial Times in a year-end interview.

Competition is going to be particularly fierce when it comes to job-creating (and economically important) investment in industry, where Grynspan notes that advanced economies are now trying to muscle-out the developing world to bring jobs and technology back home.

#3- It’s a year in which every business will have to come to grips with what artificial intelligence means to their business. Our friends at McKinsey think that 75% the total business “use case” for AI will fall into just four buckets: customer service and operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and research and development.

And adoption has so far been slow: Younger people are playing with it, sorting out its strengths (cutting through deep stores of data) and weaknesses (so. much. hallucination). But only a third of managers around the world tell McKinsey they’re using generative AI for work. Nearly 70% have either tried it and decided not to use it — or have never touched it at all.

Your best starting points for AI: There are far more questions than answers. Folks with more exposure will want to look at Benedict Evans’ annual look ahead, which this year focuses almost entirely on gen AI. Newbies can start with the Economist.

THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME-

Gold prices soar to a fresh record high: The price of 24 karat gold rose to an unprecedented EGP 3,771 per gram yesterday — a 5.6% increase from Monday’s prices. Gold prices have more than doubled over the past year as more Egyptians flock to the precious metal, which has been acting as a haven asset for people looking to protect savings from the weakening EGP.

No specific trigger: Economic experts and government officials joined Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 6:03) and Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 37:05) to weigh in on the matter and try to figure out the reason for the spike. Most of them failed to pinpoint a specific trigger and simply attributed it to rising demand. Supply Minister official Nagy Farag told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi that he expects prices to stabilize soon and warned people against making purchases at the current inflated prices.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The news flow has slightly picked up this morning with more news coming in, mostly from the US.

#1- US strikes Iraq: The US military has launched strikes on three Iraqi facilities that the US says were being used by Hezbollah and affiliated groups. The strikes came in response to a series of attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria which it said were carried out by Iranian-backed militias. (Bloomberg | Reuters | BBC | CNN)

#2- US extends tariff exemptions on Chinese products: The US has extended tariff exemptions for hundreds of Chinese products — including pumps, electric motors, car parts, bicycles, and vacuum cleaners — and 77 Covid-related products — like face masks and hand sanitizing wipes — due to expire on 31 December to 31 May. The tariffs were originally imposed by former US President Donald Trump’s administration in 2018 after an investigation found China guilty of unfair trade practices. (Reuters)

ALSO- FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF A*A- There has never been a better time to buy a Mac than today, after Intel decided to accept a USD 25 bn grant from Israel to build a chip plant in the country’s south. It’s the “largest ever investment by a company in Israel,” Reuters reports.

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