Egypt faces the prospect of mns in lost FX receipts — and businesses and consumers around the world are staring at spiraling prices and snarled supply chainsas Yemen’s armed Houthi group shows no signs of standing down in the Red Sea.

Hundreds of vessels are giving the Suez Canal a pass:

  • Bad for Egypt- Swiss logistics firm Kuehne + Nagel has tracked 313 vessels — carrying some 4.2 mn containers — that have been impacted by the security situation in the Red Sea. (Statement)
  • Bad for the World #1- Effective global container shipping capacity could be reduced by 10-15%, as the trip around Africa will increase travel time from Asia to Europe by 50%. (Fitch)
  • Bad for the World #2- Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will tack added fees of US 250-1k onto the cargo it transports to and from the Middle East starting 1 January. Maersk and CMA CGM also implemented extra charges last week. (Reuters)

Ships steaming away from the Suez Canal will deliver a hit to our FX position when we can least afford it. By some estimates, the Suez Canal Authority lost USD 15-20 mn every day that the canal was not navigable after the Ever Given ran aground.

And we could be looking at months disruption to trade:AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest shipping line, sees the Red Sea chaos lasting for months. The shipping firm has pushed the arrival date for over 150 of its tankers, with some delays extending until March due to the route diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk was among several others to pause all Red Sea transit last week due to increased Houthi-led attacks on vessels.

MARITIME COALITION HAS FEW TEETH

Think “highway patrol,” not “Gangbusters.” A US-led naval coalition will patrol “the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to respond to, and assist as necessary, commercial vessels,” but it won’t escort individual vessels, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told Bloomberg on Friday. The coalition, announced last week, now includes 20 countries.

The US shot down four drones apparently aimed at an American destroyer in the southern Red Sea, Reuters reported overnight, saying the drones were launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

And convoys may not be the answer: The volume of shipping in the Red Sea is probably too high to structure in convoys, a retired US naval officer tells the Wall Street Journal, and “convoys take time to form and are not an ideal long-term solution as vessels face added queueing time, slower sailing speeds, and limited versatility,” industry publication Splash24 writes.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not participating in the coalition,though Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said last week that countries bordering the Red Sea bear the responsibility of protecting freedom of navigation. “We have been cooperating with many of our partners to provide the appropriate conditions for this,” Shoukry added, speaking at a press conference with his UK counterpart David Cameron.

CALLING OUT IRAN

The US is pointing fingers: The White House has declassified intelligence information that it says shows Yemen’s Houthis rely on Iranian-provided monitoring systems to launch attacks on ships, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson told CNN. “Iran has the choice to provide or withhold this support, without which the Houthis would struggle to effectively track and strike commercial vessels navigating shipping lanes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” Watson added..

Iran is threatening to close the Mediterranean, the strait of Gibraltar, and other waterwaysif Israel and the US do not stop their “crimes” in Gaza, Reuters reports, citing Iranian Revolutionary Guards Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi. Naqdi didn’t say how Iran could close the Med, but warned the country has “new powers of resistance.”

SMOOTHING THE WATERS

An olive branch from Iran — at a curious moment: Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi called President Abdel Fattah El Sisi yesterday to congratulate him on a third term in office, according to an Ittihadiya readout. The two leaders also touched on the situation in Gaza and agreed to “take tangible steps for final resolution of issues” between Palestine and Israel, Iranian Deputy Chief of Staff Mohammad Jamshidi wrote in a post on X.

Egyptian and Iranian officials have reportedly been in talks for some time now about normalizing ties and reopening embassies, as part of a wider Iranian diplomatic push to mend relations with the Arab world. Earlier this year, Iran inked a landmark accord with Saudi Arabia to reopen embassies and is looking to do the same with the UAE.

MEANWHILE- Yemen’s warring factions commit to a ceasefire. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-affiliated Houthis have committed to reaching a ceasefire in their almost decade-long conflict, according to a statement from the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen. Both parties are now committed to implement a UN-mediated roadmap that would entail a nation-wide ceasefire, the payment of all public sector salaries, resumption of oil exports, and preparation for a “Yemeni-owned political process under UN auspices,” the statement said.

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