#1- Election vote count begins as polls close: The National Elections Authority (NEA) has begun to count the ballots in this week’s presidential election, it said in a presser (watch, runtime: 18:17) yesterday as polls across the country prepared to close following three days of voting. The authority didn’t provide updates on the final turnout figure or participation rate, which local media has said could be the highest ever.

No-one is expecting a close race:

  • Local media is already reporting overwhelming victories for El Sisi in several areas (See: Alexandria, Ras Ghareb), with Hazem Omar in a distant second place. (Our thoughts go out to Al Wafd’s Abdel-Sanad Yamama, who reportedly won all of 43 votes in the Red Sea district.)
  • The global press called it a while ago, with a third El Sisi term being described as “ allbut certain,” the results suspense-free, and his expected victory “ sweeping.”

When will the results be announced? Monday 18 December.

#2- After the count: A debt restructure, Morgan Stanley suggests: The government is likely to restructure its debt in 2024 soon after the election amidsoaring borrowing costs, according to a Morgan Stanley note picked up by Bloomberg.

What they’re saying: “Given sufficient reserves to service upcoming external debt obligations in 2024, any restructuring will likely be pre-emptive in nature,” strategists at the investment bank wrote. “The relatively high and rising interest expense to revenue ratio into 2025 could force the authorities to take the pain upfront (soon after elections) and restructure.”

Remember: The government’s interest bill more than doubled y-o-y in the first quarter of the current fiscal year and significantly outpaced rising revenues. The cost of debt service alone was more than 40% higher than total revenues during the quarter.

Forget a float: A staggered devaluation is likely to be authorities’ course of action when they eventually let the EGP slip against the greenback following the election, the investment bank wrote in a separate note picked up by Asharq Business.

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