Good morning, friends. It’s the third and final day of voting in the presidential election, but attention is focused squarely on Gaza as we start the day.

Conditions in Gaza are “catastrophic,” with “little to eat, no way to keep clean, and collapsing civil order as Israel’s offensive pushes hundreds of thousands towards” the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, the Financial Times and Reuters write in prominent front-page pieces ahead of a UN General Assembly vote on a ceasefire expected today.

The big business story: More companies will join the privatization program.

^^ We have more on all of this below.

LAST DAY OF VOTING

#1- It’s the third and final day of the presidential election: Voters at home have been casting ballots for four presidential hopefuls: incumbent President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People Party’s Hazem Omar.

Officials say turnout has been impressive: Some 30 mn people have voted in the first two days of the ballot, the highest number to participate in an election in the country’s history, the head of the National Elections Authority (NEA) told reporters yesterday (watch, runtime: 19:35). Around 45% of eligible voters have cast their vote so far, behind the 2012 poll (where 52% voted) and 47.5% turnout in 2014.

Pundits think it’ll top 50%: Amr Adib said that he expects the participation rate to break past 50% by the time the polls close tonight (watch, runtime: 25:51), while guests on last night’s Kelma Akhira speculated it could reach 60% (watch, runtime: 4:06).

Last chance: Polls are open from 9am through 9pm today. Find your nearest polling station by entering your national ID number on the NEA website. You can also text your national ID number to 5151 or call the same number to find your polling station and receive your voting number.

The next steps: Results of the vote are scheduled to be announced on Monday, 18 December. A runoff, if necessary, will take place in early January 2024.

LAST(?) DAY OF COP28

#2- It’s crunch time on the final day of COP28 in Dubai,although fierce divisions over a draft agreement could see the conference going into overtime.

Déjà vu? Last year’s COP27 also ran into overtime, with emissions reduction having been the stumbling block.

This time around, delegates are having a hard time agreeing on language about oil and gas. A week of tense negotiations has resulted in a draft agreement that would commit countries to “reducing” the consumption and production of fossil fuel use in a “just, orderly and equitable manner” to achieve net zero “by, before, or around” 2050.

It would be the first time a COP agreement calls for a reduction in the use of oil and gas, but falls far short of the “phase out” language sought by European negotiators and a group of small island nations.

Saudi Arabia and Arab oil producers are flatly opposed to calls to phase out hydrocarbons.

There won’t be a blanket call to triple renewable energy production, instead presenting it as an “option” and not a “prescribed step,” alongside doubling energy efficiency.

What happens now: Delegates from each participating country are lobbying and being lobbied on the final language, with the EU, small nations, and the United States firmly in one camp, and Arab and producing countries in the other. If there’s no agreement today, talks go into overtime. Under UN rules, any single country can block the adoption of the agreement.

Want more on the story?Enterprise Climate has the lowdown, calling the draft agreement a “mixed bag of compromises.”

UN VOTE ON CEASEFIRE TODAY

#3- Egypt, Arab world step up diplomatic pressure for Gaza ceasefire: The UN General Assembly will convene today to vote on a non-binding resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza as the humanitarian crisis on the ground reaches catastrophic levels. The emergency meeting was called by Egypt and Mauritania after the US blocked another resolution at the Security Council last week despite the UN and aid agencies warning of starvation conditions and the imminent collapse of public order.

FED MEETING TODAY

#4- The US Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today where for the first time in almost two years the key question is not when the central bank will raise interest rates, but when it will cut them. Don’t expect any firm indicators about when this might happen, though: the key task for Fed officials is to temper the recent overexcitement in the financial markets, which are pricing in rate cuts earlier than they would like in 2024, according to the Financial Times.

They’re starting to get the message: Much of the heat has been taken out of the recent rally as investors recalibrate their expectations about how the Fed will proceed next year. A potentially key indicator will come later today when fresh US inflation data lands.

Yesterday:

  • Equities, bonds + the USD were little changed ahead of the inflation release
  • BTC fell as much as 7%
  • Gold is down significantly from its record high last week and fell below USD 2k
  • EM assets edged lower.

Save the date:Here at home, the Central Bank of Egypt will hold its final monetary policy meeting of the year next Thursday, 21 December.

ALSO HAPPENING TODAY

#5- F&B players mingle at the Food Africa Expo, which runs today through to Thursdayat the Egypt International Exhibition Center. Wholesalers, distributors, and retailers in food and beverage industries hope to cook up trade across Africa and the Middle East.

#6- Trade delegation rustles up Saudi orders and investments: The Engineering Export Council of Egypt is in its third day of a trade mission to Saudi Arabia, the largest importer for our engineering sector. Sixteen Egyptian manufacturers are connecting with Saudi buyers in a bid to top up orders and investments from the kingdom for pumps, car parts, boilers, kitchenware, and the like. The visit wraps up on Friday.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1-LNG exports are back: Two of five LNG shipments destined for Europe are being prepared to leave Egypt within a week, unnamed government officials have reportedly told Al Arabiya. The Oil Ministry plans to export all five shipments before the end of 2023, with the first two deliveries carrying up to 250 mn cubic meters of LNG. All in, Egypt expects to ship 1 mn cubic tons of LNG before the year is out.

It hasn’t been a great 2023 for Egypt’s gas exports: Egypt has exported just 3.38 mn metrictons of LNG so far this year, down from 7.1 mn tons during the whole of 2022.

#2- GERD talks to reopen: Negotiators from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan are set to congregate for another round of talks aimed at breaking the deadlock over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on 16-18 December in Addis Ababa. This will be the fourth round of talks since President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to re-enter negotiations in July.

The talks come as Ethiopia faces the prospect of defaulting on its debt after it missed an interest payment yesterday on a USD bond. It has a 14-day window in which to set things right before it is declared in default. It’s in talks with bondholders for a restructuring that would see its bonds pay lower coupons, with officials there saying it couldn’t pay the USD 33 mn it had due yesterday because of its “fragile external position,” according to Bloomberg.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a closer look at all the Egypt-related news from COP28.

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