Good morning, friends, and happy Thursday to you all. It’s another slow morning as we wrap up a particularly uneventful week (on the home front, at least). This morning, the eyes of much of the world will be locked onto Dubai — where climate negotiators are gathering for the opening day of COP28 — and Gaza, where fighting could resume in the coming hours, with Hamas and Israel seemingly no closer to agreeing an extension to the week-long truce. All that and more, below.

WATCH THIS SPACE- #1- United Bank stake sale could be announced this year: The United Bank is expected to pull back the curtain on its sale agreement in mid-December as it currently awaits mandatory tender offers (MTO) from the bidders, a source at the state-owned lender told Enterprise. Most of the potential buyers have completed due diligence on the bank, the source added.

United Bank is one of two state-owned banks in which EBRD is reportedly interested in taking a stake. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is reportedly looking to grab stakes in United Bank and Banque du Caire, two of the three banks — along with the Arab African International Bank — slated for the government privatization program.

WATCH THIS SPACE #2- El Sisi checks pulse of the economy amid fresh deval forecasts: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi chaired an economy-centered meeting that included Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Planning Minister Hala El Said, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla, International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat and General Intelligence Service Director Abbas Kamel according to an Ittihadiya statement. The meeting “followed up on the economic situation in light of regional and international developments,” the statement said.

What did they talk about? El Sisi “gave directives” for the ministers to “continue working on developing national economic programs and projects in a way that enhances the economy’s ability to face current challenges and ensures the protection of citizens from its negative effects,” the statement reads, without getting into further detail.

FLOAT WATCH- Capital Economics looks into its devaluation crystal ball: The much-anticipated float of the EGP will shortly follow the conclusion of the presidential election in December and will be accompanied by a 200 bps interest rate hike, according to an Arab World News Agency piece covering what a report by Capital Economics. Policymakers need to loosen their grip on the exchange rate soon to maintain the balance of payments and attract fresh capital inflows, the London-based economic research firm said.

Where’s the EGP headed against the greenback? Capital Economics isn’t offering a call. The EGP currently stands at anywhere between 48-53 to the USD in the parallel market depending on how much you’re buying, when, where, and from whom. The EGP is still at 30.95 to the USD per the official rate.

Calls by both EFG Hermes and BMI suggest we could see the EGP recover a bit from its current low — provided a float is successful and the market clears.BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, expects the EGP to weaken 45% against the USD by the end of 1Q2024, following the Central Bank of Egypt’s currency devaluation, which it says will take place in February. EFG Hermes lead MENA economist Mohamed Abu Basha sees the “EGP 40 mark [against the greenback] as being an eventual area of stability for the EGP when the FX market clears.”

ELECTION 2023- Presidential hopefuls pressed pause on their election campaigns yesterday ahead of Egyptian expats heading to the polls tomorrow through Sunday. On the ballot: Incumbent President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People Party’s Hazem Omar.

Polls open here at home on 10-12 December. First-round results are due on 18 December and a runoff, if necessary, will take place in early January 2024.

PSA #1- El Gouna Film Festival is back on the calendar after being postponed from October in the wake of the war on Gaza. The rescheduled festival runs from 14 -21 December and will include a special program dedicated to Palestinian cinema, in collaboration with the Palestine Film Institute.

PSA#2- - Metro commuters, you can stay out late on Thursdays. The Cairo Metro Line 3 will extend operating hours to 1 am on Thursdays, line operator RATP Dev Mobility Cairo said yesterday. The extended hours start today for a one-month trial period.

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TOMORROW IS A NEW MONTH- As we near the end of the year — here are the key news triggers on which to keep your eyes as we head into December:

  • PMI: S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for November next Tuesday, 5 December.
  • Foreign reserves: The central bank should release November’s foreign reserves figures next week.
  • Inflation: Capmas and the CBE will publish the latest inflation data on Sunday, 10 December.
  • Interest rates: The CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee will gather to discuss interest rates on Thursday, 21 December.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s finally COP28 o’clock: Dubai might seem a bit busier than usual this morning as a who's who of climate experts, NGOs, and journalists land in the emirate for two weeks of climate talks at COP28. World leaders will make their appearance for two days on Friday and Saturday. We’ll be keeping you up-to-date with events on the ground through to 12 December. Check out the full agenda for the summit here.

Want to go deeper? Enterprise Climate has got your back.

#2- To cut or not to cut, OPEC+ edition: OPEC+ member states are meeting today to discuss how the cartel of oil-producing nations will respond to falling oil prices, decide on next year’s production targets, and make a decision on whether to prolong production cuts.

The experts are still banking on a cut: “With fundamentals softening and market sentiment bearish, OPEC+ may need to announce another formal cut,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a report picked up by Bloomberg.

Crude prices on both sides of the Atlantic have been whipsawing all week long after the meeting to talk about output levels was postponed to today from Sunday to give the cartel time to get on the same page. Saudi and Russia want cuts, while Angola and Nigeria want to pump more in 2024.

It doesn’t look like another delay to the meeting is in the cards despite chatter earlier this week that could be the case. Reports out overnight all talk about the depth of possible cuts (here and here), not about postponing the virtual meeting.

MEANWHILE- There’s chatter ahead of the meeting that Saudi Aramco could drop the price to Asia of its flagship Arab Light grade of crude as it looks to fend off less-costly US and European offerings, Bloomberg reports.

#3- We could get a better idea about the trajectory of interest rates in the US and Europe today when fresh inflation figures land. Euro area figures and the US personal consumption expenditures price index are expected to show inflation slowing to its weakest rate since early 2021 — forecasts which if correct will further stoke optimism that rates on both sides of the Atlantic have reached their peak. Bloomberg has more.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

#1- Kissinger passes away, aged 100: Henry Kissinger, one of the most influentialdiplomats of the 20th century, has passed away at the age of 100, his consultancy said early this morning. A polarizing figure, the former US secretary of state is praised by his supporters for negotiating an end to the Vietnam War, ushering in warmer relations with the Soviet Union and China, and holding the Middle East together in the wake of the 1973 war. Among his critics, the Harvard University professor will be remembered for the brutal bombing of Cambodia and Laos, alleged complicity in Indonesia’s genocidal campaign in East Timor, and backing of General Augusto Pinochet’s seizure of power in Chile. (Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | WashingtonPost | Wall Street Journal)

#2- Time is running out to extend the ceasefire in Gaza: With less than two hours before the temporary truce between Hamas and Israel expires, there is still little sign of an agreement over how to extend it into a seventh day. Both sides have expressed willingness to continue to prolong the ceasefire and continue releasing hostages, though who, how many, and for how long are key sticking points that remain unresolved by the Egypt- and Qatar-mediated discussions. We have more in this morning’s news well, below.

#3- Kuwait’s emir hospitalized: Kuwait’s ruling emir Sheikh Nawaf Al Ahmad Al Sabah was hospitalized yesterday due to an unspecified “emergency health problem.” The emir is now in stable condition.Sheikh Nawaf is 86 years old. (Associated Press | Reuters)

#4- Amazon ramps up its AI product line with a new chatbot: On the heels of last week’s OpenAI hysteria, Amazon is rolling out its generative AI tool for business — dubbed Amazon Q. The chatbot can be connected to over 40 enterprise systems and contacted via communication apps like Slack. A two-day preview version of the tool is now available, after which companies will have the choice between two versions, one tailored for business users and one tailored for IT workers. (CNBC | Bloomberg)

Elsewhere in the world of AI- AI research lab Google DeepMind used AI to identify the compound structure of over 2 mn new materials, 380k of which could soon be made in the real world, it said in a statement yesterday. The new materials can be used to develop stronger EV batteries, superconductors, and powering supercomputers.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

The Egypt Defense Expo (EDEX) will be firing off from 4 to 7 December: Around 35k defense and security professionals from across the world will land down in Cairo early next month for the biennial event at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. You can register to attend here.

HELP GAZA-

Want to support relief efforts in Gaza, but don’t know how? We’ve got you. More than 1 mn people in Gaza have been thrown from their homes and every human being there lacks access to food, water, and fuel amid the most intense bombardment any population has endured this century.

The folks at Talabat are processing donations for a range of Gaza relief appeals by charities including the Egyptian Food Bank and Misr El Kheir. Pay in EGP using your credit card.

Or check out our list of charities to which you can make direct donations via bank deposit and / or Fawry.

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