Good morning, friends. Two foreign stories in which Egypt is deeply involved will nudge business news off center stage this week: The war in Gaza and COP28.

#1- Israel’s war in Gaza has entered a new phase. Egypt’s diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire — and then to keep hostage and prisoner releases on track — are the story of the morning. A measure of quiet has descended over Gaza, where more than 12k people have been killed so far as a result of Israel’s war. The ceasefire, which took hold on Friday morning at 7am local time, seems largely to be holding.

The pause in the fighting is set to expire on Tuesday morning, but State Information Service chief Diaa Rashwan said in a statement late yesterday that Egypt was brokering talks with Hamas and Israel to extend the ceasefire for at least one to two days, a development that would give more time to get aid in to Gazans.

COUNTDOWN TO COP28

#2- We’re in the final countdown to COP28, which kicks off on Thursday, bringing together global leaders in science, policy, and business in host city Dubai. The summit runs from 30 November to 12 December.

Setting the agenda: The gathering will focus on fast-tracking the world’s transition to green energy, slashing emissions before 2030, transforming climate finance, and building resilience, the COP28 presidency said in its letter to parties. A big focus of the summer will be the first of the so-called global stocktakes — or “GST” in COP-speak.

What’s a GST? They’re five-year checkpoints that track the progress (or lack thereof) made by the international community since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Could the loss and damage fund finally see the light? Little progress has been made on the landmark loss and damagefund over the past year after delegates from some 200 nations signed off on the pact at the close of COP27. The fund, championed by Egypt’s climate envoy, Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, aims to have wealthy nations pitch into a fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate change.

Where does it stand? A draft agreement on the fund, reached earlier this month, will be put up for a final vote during COP28, but the AP is warning that it will face challenges getting through.

A new fund to help heavy industry go green? The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) — a financing scheme under which Western donors help fund developing nation’s transition to green energy — should be replicated for heavy industries and hard-to-abate sectors such as steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizers, Mohieldin told Reuters.

FAST FACT- Emerging markets need some USD 387 bn a year through 2030 to adapt to climate-driven changes, the UN said in a report (pdf).

** Go deeper: Enterprise Climate spoke to Mohieldin earlier this year on all things COP, lossand damage fund, and fossil fuels.

** NEED MORE? Tomorrow’s Enterprise Climate will have the inside track on what you need to know about COP28.

EXPATS VOTE NEXT WEEK-

ELECTION 2023 UPDATE- Egyptians abroad go to polls on 1-3 December to choose between incumbent President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People Party’s Party Hazem Omar.

Voters in Egypt will cast their ballots on 10-12 December. First-round results are due on 18 December and a runoff, if necessary, will take place in early January 2024.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

WATCH THIS SPACE

#1- Erdogan could visit Egypt soon: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could touch down in Cairo “soon” to discuss accelerating the evacuation of wounded Palestinians from Gaza, the Turkish president told reporters on Wednesday, according to Turkish news outlet Haberturk. The visit — a first since diplomatic relations between Egypt and Turkey broke down in 2013 — comes as Erdogan calls on the Islamic world to act as a “single fist” on Gaza. “When that fist hits the table with all its force, it will not be possible for Israel to continue its occupation or oppression,” he said. Cairo and Ankara restored full diplomatic ties in July this year.

#2- Our green hydrogen strategy is imminent: The Madbouly government will launch its long-awaited green hydrogen strategy within days, AlMal reports. The news comes shortly after the National Green Hydrogen Council approved the strategy. We have the full story in this morning’s news well, below.

#3- Companies have until tomorrow to submit bids for the EEHC’s solar tender: The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) will close bidding window for its tender for five concentrated solar power plants tomorrow, AlMal reported, citing sources it says are involved in the bids. The plants will power desalination plants on the north coast and will have a combined capacity of 250 MW, helping desalinate over 400k cubic meters of water per day. The plants are expected to require USD 270 mn of investment and will be established under 25-year build-own-operate contracts.

There’s plenty of interest from developers:Our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities and Infinity are said to be interested, as are Madkour Group and Smart Engineering Solutions (SES). Foreign bidders include Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, Al Nowais’ AMEA Power, Norwegian renewables producer Scatec, Japan’s Toyota, and Spain’s Aquila.

#4- Once, this meant it was any random Tuesday. Today, it’s rarer than hen’s teeth: Foreign VCs are in town to meet with startups: US-based VC firm Plug and Play is coordinating meetings between five foreign VCs — Speedinvest, ENZA Capital, Ingressive Capital, P1 Ventures and DenVC — and 25 local startups to explore possible investment, Plug and Play’s Egypt director, Karima El Hakim, told Al Mal.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The foreign press is fixated on three main stories this morning: The hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas (we have the details in this morning’s War Watch), Sam Altman’s return to OpenAI, and a large Russian drone attack on Ukraine.

FAST FACT- More women and children have died in Gaza in two weeks than have died in Ukraine in nearly two years.

Sam Altman is back at the helm of OpenAI: Sam Altman was reinstated as CEO of the high-profile AI just five days after his sacking by the board — a move that triggered a riotous response from employees and investors alike and sent shockwaves across Silicon Valley.

OpenAI’s board is out: The board that fired Altman, which was in place to ensure the “safe development” of AI, has been replaced by a three-man provisional board. The board that fired Atlman included two high-profile effective altruists and Ilya Sutskever, a co-founder of OpenAI and its chief scientist. Sutskever helped lead the rebellion against Altman and then flipped sides, saying he would leave the company if Altman did not return as CEO.

So who’s on the board?

  • US economist and former treasury secretary Larry Summers (someone apparently thinks he’s capable of standing up to Altman ?)
  • Bret Taylor, a former Facebook and Salesforce exec who was a key player in negotiating the sale of Twitter to Elon Musk;
  • Quora CEO Adam D’Angelo, the only remaining member of the board that had sacked Altman.

Their mandate: Sort out a proper governance structure and an expanded board, among other things.

There are whispers that an AI breakthrough catalyzed Altman’s sacking: Prior to Altman’s dismissal, a previously unreported letter from staff researchers to the board of directors had warned of a powerful AI discovery that they believed “could threaten humanity,” two sources told Reuters. It was this letter, and the new algorithm finding named Q*, which catalyzed Altman’s ousting, they added.

But the tech press isn’t buying it (yet). Reporters have been unable to track down the letter, and there’s disagreement among experts on whether an AI that can do grade school math is a breakthrough.

See more at: Bloomberg | Financial Times | The Verge.

MARKET WATCH-

OPEC+ pushes back crucial policy meeting: The alliance of oil producers known as OPEC+ will be meeting on Thursday instead of today to decide on next year’s production target, it said in a statement. OPEC members failed to reach a consensus on the output quotas for African members, which caused the delay, Bloomberg wrote. There are signs the alliance moved closer this weekend to reaching an agreement with the African producers, who are aiming for higher quotas, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

FACT CHECK- B Investments’ OFH acquisition is still happening: B Investments has denied social media claims that it is backing out of its acquisition of Orascom Financial Holdings (OFH) in an EGX disclosure (pdf). The EGX-listed private equity firm is working with the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to finish up the necessary legal procedures before submitting its offer for up to 90% of OFH “as soon as possible.” B Investments has until mid-December to submit its mandatory tender offer (MTO).

DICE FOUNDING FAMILY OWNS 63.4%-

CORRECTION-Dice’s founding family now owns 63.4% of the company after buying back 545 mn shares at EGP 0.80 per share through a mandatory tender offer (MTO), according to a statement(pdf) from Beltone Financial Holding. Last week, we had miscalculated the stake that the founding family’s Toma Company for Commercial and Industrial Investments holds in the company post acquisition. We have since updated the story on our website.

ADVISORS- Beltone’s investment banking arm acted as financial advisor on the transaction, steering the transaction structure and overseeing execution. Beltone Securities acted as broker.

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