It looks like we’re about to resume LNG exports: An LNG vessel has arrived at one of Egypt’s liquefaction plants, Bloomberg reports, suggesting that we’re about to resume gas shipments after half a year with virtually no LNG leaving our country. Shipping data obtained by the news outlet shows that a carrier has docked at Idku, though its destination remains unknown.

Remember: LNG exports have been on hold since the first half of the year due to an unusually long summer heatwave, declining local production, and the war in Gaza.

  • A scorching summer + declining production: Egypt exported barely any gas during the summer months due to soaring local demand and falling production, triggering a months-long power crisis that has seen daily blackouts across the country.
  • The war compounded problems: Our imports of Israeli gas fell to zero after Chevronhalted operations at the Tamar gas field in early October in response to the war in Gaza. The US energy firm restarted production from the field earlier this month and exports to Egypt are said to have returned to pre-war levels of 800 mn cubic feet per day.

Exports so far in 2023 have been less than half of last year’s volumes: Egypt has exported just 3.38 mn metric tons of LNG so far this year, down from 7.1 mn tons during the whole of 2022, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. The country has capacity to export more than 12 mn tons a year via its two liquefaction plants at Damietta and Idku.

How much we can export is the big question:The government is said to be calculating how much gas it can allocate to export this winter, with cooler temperatures reducing local demand and war-related disruption easing. Bloomberg projections remain gloomy, expecting export volumes to be 40% lower this winter than it forecast last month.

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