Good morning, wonderful people, and happy hump day to you all. We have a packed issue for you this morning, with highlights including Kuwait rolling over its CBE deposit and another uptick in imports of natural gas from Israel after supplies were cut at the outset of the war.

Also good news: DP World is breaking ground on a new logistics zone this month and Afreximbank has extended some USD 3 bn worth of credit to local corporates doing business across Africa.

PSA- There’s never been a better time to quit smoking: Cigarette manufacturer Philip Morris has hiked the price of smokes by up to 20% in the wake of the cigarette tax hike signed into law last week, according to a price list (pdf) published by the company yesterday. The price of a pack of Merit has risen 15% to EGP 74 while the cheaper L&M brand will now go for EGP 50 a pack, up 19%. Marlboro prices have increased 17-20%, with a standard pack priced at EGP 69 and a pack of Crafted at EGP 59.

A stubborn parallel market: State-owned tobacco manufacturer Eastern Company also increased its prices last week, but this hasn’t done much to squeeze the black market, where cigarette prices have risen for local and foreign brands by EGP 5 and EGP 10 respectively, Eastern CEO Hany Aman told Al Borsa.

Remember: Legislative amendments passed last week introduced a EGP 0.50 VAT on all tobacco products — and permit manufacturers to raise their prices by 12% annually for the next five years without moving into a higher per-pack tax bracket. The idea is to help companies finance production costs to increase supply and undercut wholesalers who have been selling cigarettes far above the sticker price.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Bartering to beat the FX crunch? The central bank and Trade Ministry are reportedly studying possible barter trade agreements with Russia, Turkey, and some African countries in a bid to reduce pressure on the country’s FX stocks, Asharq Business reported, citing two anonymous government sources. Egyptian Chamber of Chemical Industries head Sherif El Gabaly said that it is likely that we would swap fertilizer for Kenyan tea if the barter system gets the go-ahead.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day one of the Egypt VC Summit: Venture capitalists have descended on the Hilton Hotel in central Cairo today for the Egypt VC Summit, which will run until tomorrow. Flat6Labs’ Dina El Shenoufy, GAFI’s Hossam Heiba, FRA’s Mohamed Farid, and other industry players are set to take to the stage.

It’s Algeria and diaspora day at theIntra-African Trade Fair that has been taking place all week at Cairo’s Hilton Hotel.

The Environment Ministry will hold its first Harm Reduction Summit in Cairo today. “The summit aims to illuminate the concept of harm reduction and mitigate the negative effects of harmful practices on the environment, health and society,” according to apress release (pdf).

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

It’s another morning of US politics dominating the international front pages, other than the war on Gaza (which we dive into in this morning’s War Watch, below).

The Supreme Court gets an ethics update: This morning, the international press is giving a lot of ink to the US Supreme Court adopting its first formal code of conduct. The move comes following a series of revelations about justices accepting undisclosed trips, gifts, and a bunch of other favors they have been cashing in. (Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | New York Times | Washington Post | WSJ | BBC)

ALSO- Former UK prime minister David Cameron has made a shock return to frontline British politics after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak went ahead with an emergency cabinet reshuffle. Cameron has been named foreign secretary, replacing James Cleverly who takes the place of Suella Braverman as home secretary. (BBC | Financial Times)

Al Qahera News cameraman killed in Gaza: Al Qahera News cameraman Ahmed Fatima has been killed in Gaza, the head of the news department at the channel’s parent company United Media Services said yesterday. The crew was at Al Shifa Hospital covering the Israeli military’s siege when the broadcaster lost contact with them, Ahmed El Tahry wrote on Facebook. The Journalists’ Syndicate condemned “in the strongest possible terms the continued Zionist aggression against journalists” and called for the prosecution of Israeli military officials for war crimes.

Israel has targeted and killed 50 journalists in Gaza since the conflict started less than six weeks ago, the Palestinian Red Crescent said yesterday. The war made last month the deadliest for journalists since records began in the early 1990s, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

When you need to defend a legally dubious war, who you gonna call?Tony Blair is reportedly being headhunted by the Israeli government to mount a defense of its war effort and quieten the global outcry about its devastating impact on Gaza’s civilians. Israeli PM Netanyahu hopes that Blair’s experience as a Middle East envoy will “temper international concerns over the civilian cost of Israel’s campaign in Gaza,” Israeli media wrote yesterday, citing several unnamed senior officials. Blair’s office said the former UK prime minister is open to getting involved but stressed nothing has been decided yet.

MARKET WATCH-

Wall Street banks are split on where they see the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy heading over the coming year or two as the central bank starts easing in response to cooling inflation. UBS strategists see the Fed slashing rates to 2.5-2.75% by the end of 2024, with the first rate cut coming in March, Bloomberg wrote. Morgan Stanley also sees deep cuts starting June 2024, bringing rates down to 2.375% by the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs is less optimistic, expecting the first 25 bps cut in 4Q 2024, to be followed by quarterly cuts through mid-2026, leaving rates at 3.5-3.75%.

Where does the Fed stand? The Fed’s latest projections show two 25 bps rate cuts next year and rates going down to 3.9% by the end of 2025. Rates currently stand at a 22-year high of 5.25-5.5% following an aggressive monetary tightening cycle.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: How green accelerators address the challenges facing startups in Egypt.

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