Good morning, friends, and welcome to a business-heavy morning. The big stories today center on energy and FX, with cabinet extending budget cutbacks through June 2024 at the same time as it raised the price of petrol at the pumps by 14%. Notably, the oil ministry held back from raising the price of diesel, suggesting consumers will not be paying more for mass transport or goods including fruits and vegetables.

The energy theme continues with suggestions that imports of natural gas from Israel are back up to c. 25% of their pre-war levels. That’s progress, but does little to suggest we’re about to see planning power outages dialing back to one hour per day.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s PMI day. Look for the S&P Global PMI for Egypt here at around 7:15am CLT. Soaring inflation and shortages of raw materials led the contraction in private-sector activity to deepen in September after slow and gradual improvements over the previous five months. Saudi and Qatar gauges are also due out today.

#2- The Senate will reconvene today after a two-week break to discuss a report that recommends setting up a voluntary carbon market on the EGX to “stimulate industries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and encourage clean sources of production and the creation of a low carbon economy.” FRA boss Mohamed Farid met with some 35 company representatives last month to discuss how to pick up the pace on establishing what would be Africa’s first carbon credit platform, initially expected to launch earlier this year.

PSA- Foreign residents of Egypt have until 15 December to sort out their legal status in the country, including making sure they have not overstayed their visas, the state-run MENA news agency reported on Thursday, citing an unnamed security source.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Calling the EGP : USD exchange rate: Fitch Solutions’ director of MENA country risk, Ramona Moubarak, tells us that she expects to see the EGP drop to between 40-45 against the greenback in 1Q 2024. Société Générale Bank, meanwhile, sees the EGP sliding to 37 against the greenback by the end of year, from the current official rate of EGP 30.96, according to Asharq Business. Pundits expect the EGPto devalue against the greenback when it is floatedafter the December presidential election. The USD is now changing hands at about EGP 47.00 on the prallel market.

#2- NDP HQ developer to be revealed “within days”: The consortium of developerstasked with revamping the site of the former National Democratic Party headquarters in downtown Cairo will be announced within days, Sovereign Fund of Egypt CEO Ayman Soliman told Asharq Business on Thursday.

ICYMI: A consortium of Saudi Egyptian Developers (SED) and the UAE’s Al Shafar GeneralContracting (ASGC) Group is reportedly poised to work on the USD 5 bn development.

#3- Three int’l offers for Wataniya: We’ll know before the end of the year who is buying a stake in filling station owner Wataniya, Soliman said, adding that three offers from international investors have been submitted to buy the military-owned company.

We previously counted six bidders: Shell and China’s North Petroleum recently joined TaqaArabia, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC), and Saudi firm Petromin as the companies that have reportedly submitted offers for the Wataniya stake. Bids range between USD 250 mn and USD 280 mn, Asharq Business reported in August.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

Gaza is still dominating the world’s attention this morning as the conflict enters its fifth week. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s (so-far) unsuccessful trip to the region is making the headlines after both Israel and Arab diplomats rebuffed his call for a “humanitarian pause” during talks in Tel Aviv and Amman. Blinken now heads to Turkey where he’ll try to convince an increasingly hostile Erdogan that continuing the bombing is the best route to solving the conflict.

It wasn’t a one-off: A group of UN experts have joined with the now-resigned UN rights official Craig Mokhiber to warn that “the Palestinian people are at grave risk of genocide … Israel’s allies also bear responsibility and must act now to prevent its disastrous course of action.”

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of stealing from his cryptocurrency exchange’s customers in New York on Thursday. The rise and fall of the once well-respected and influential figure in cryptocurrency may mark the beginning of a new wave of regulation against the mostly unregulated industry.
Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg

HELP GAZA-

Want to support relief efforts in Gaza, but don’t know how? We’ve got you. More than 1 mn people in Gaza have been thrown from their homes and every human being there lacks access to food, water, and fuel amid the most intense bombardment any population has endured this century.

The folks at Talabat are processing donations for a range of Gaza relief appeals by charities including the Egyptian Food Bank and Misr El Kheir. Pay in EGP using your credit card.

Or check out our list of charities to which you can make direct donations via bank deposit and / or Fawry.

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