Economic growth almost halved to 3.8% in FY 2022-23 from 6.6% the year prior, according to figures announced by Planning Minister Hala El Said during a cabinet meeting on Thursday. That’s a drop from preliminary figures in July that had put growth at 4.2%. The state’s fiscal year runs from 1 July to 30 June.

The why: Our economy had to grapple with the effects of the war in Ukraine on supply chains and the “exacerbation of the external debt crisis in emerging markets and developing countries,” the statement said. The government had initially penciled in 5.7% growth for its FY 2022-23 state budget one month before the war in Ukraine broke out. We expect to know more when the government publishes figures for the April-June quarter.

Gov’t expects a better year this year: Growth is expected to rise to 4.2% in the current fiscal year ending June 2024, El Said said — that’s a 0.1 percentage point increase from July’s 4.1% forecast. Egypt is looking to gradually accelerate growth over the next two years to reach 6% in FY 2024-25, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait previously said.

S&P and the IMF see slower growth, with S&P Global Ratings penciling in 3.5% this fiscal year and the IMF having lowered its forecast for the same period to to 3.6% from its previous forecast of 4.1%.

Tags: