Good morning, folks: A bit of good news to open the issue before the inevitable war talk…

We’ll all get an extra hour in bed tonight: Daylight saving time comes to an end at midnight tonight so don’t forget to turn back your clocks and enjoy that extra hour of sleep tomorrow morning.

The UN General Assembly is holding an emergency meeting today: With the United States and the UK continuing to block calls for an immediate ceasefire at the UN Security Council, other countries will try to force the issue with a vote at the UN General Assembly today.

Jordan and Mauritania are among 14 countries to have requested an emergency session“as rapidly as possible” to address the crisis in Gaza. “In light of the gravity of the situation, due in particular to the siege and military aggression by Israel … that has killed thousands of civilians … and inflicted catastrophic humanitarian conditions, risking further dangerous destabilization of the situation,” the two countries wrote in a letter to the chairman.

Remember: The US has twice voted down Security Council resolutions that would have called for an immediate ceasefire. Russia and Brazil have both put forward resolutions to bring an end to the fighting, though the US will only countenance a “pause” in the fighting and has insisted that the council recognize Israel’s right to self-defense.

Just symbolism, or…? The plight of the Palestinians has historically found huge support in the General Assembly, and while any vote is non-binding, any outpouring of global opposition to the conflict will be an embarrassment for the US-Israel axis and could increase the heat on Washington to push for a sustained ceasefire.

It goes without saying, but the conflict is still dominating the global conversation this morning:Bloomberg, the New York Times and the Washington Post are all covering the increasingly vocal global opposition to the war with varying degrees of surprise.

Also getting attention in the US press: The parallel universe that is the US House of Representatives, where the right wing of the Republican Party got their guy in the speaker’s chair. Outspoken Trumpist Mike Johnson is the man tasked with bringing together a divided Republican caucus just as lawmakers resume the seemingly intractable negotiations over the budget, with a government shutdown just weeks away. Smooth sailing ahead then. (CNN | Washington Post | Bloomberg | Reuters | NYT | Wall Street Journal)

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1-Investors are doing DD on United Bank, and could wrap it up by December:Strategic investors interested in acquiring shares in Central Bank of Egypt-owned lender United Bank have begun due diligence, Chairman Ashraf El Kady told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 3:04). The bank expects them to complete due diligence before the end of the year, he said.

Who’s interested? A number of international financial institutions are reportedly interested in acquiring shares in the lender, including the local units of Mashreq, Crédit Agricole, and the National Bank of Kuwait as well as international financial investors. El Kady did not provide any further information on interested investors.

Remember: United Bank attracted interest from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund before talks collapsed over differences over the valuation amid uncertainty over the exchange rate. The CBE owns 99.99% of the bank.

#2-BRICS eyes its first-ever syndicated loan and we may get a slice: The New Development Bank, established by the BRICS group of emerging economies, is seeking its inaugural syndicated loan of USD 1.25 bn with a three-year tenor, writes Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter. The Shanghai-based lender aims to use the loan for infrastructure and renewable energy financing in member states Brazil, India, China, and South Africa, as well as Egypt and Bangladesh, the people said. Interested Asian and Middle Eastern banks have until the end of November to submit their commitments.

Remember: Egypt, alongside Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Ethiopia, and Argentina, wererecently invited to join BRICS and are expected to become members next year.

#3- Egypt’s securitization pipeline is looking healthy, with at least EGP 2.3 bn worth of issuances in the pipeline for next month if reports in the local press yesterday are to be believed:

  • Al Ahly Financial Leasing Company will issue bonds worth EGP 1.1 bn next month. (Al Borsa)
  • GB Auto’s Drive Finance will reportedly close a EGP 600 mn issuance, while One Finance is planning a EGP 530 mn sale. (Al Borsa)

HAPPENING TODAY-

And the next batch of golden licenses go to…: The General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) will sign contracts with Samsung, EnviroProcess, Gasco, and Fayoum Company for Storage and Warehouses to receive golden licenses tomorrow, a GAFI source told Enterprise yesterday. The companies have all received approval from the Madbouly government to receive the single-approval licenses.

  • #1-South Korean electronics giant Samsung intends to invest USD 50 mn in its new mobilephone factory at its industrial complex in Beni Suef. The company started manufacturing smartphones here last year at its USD 270-mn TV and tablet factory.
  • #2-Local company Fayoum Company for Storage and Warehouses will receive alicense to work on a EGP 1.3 bn project to establish new strategic warehouses in Fayoum, providing 600 jobs during construction and 250 jobs at the operational stage.
  • #3- Local EV manufacturer EgyptSat Auto is getting a golden license to build a EGP 300 mn factory with an monthly production capacity of 5k cars.
  • #4- Thestate-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Company (GASCO) will invest USD 380 mn to expand its gas complex in Alexandria. The company wants to add a fourth production line with a capacity of 600 mn cubic feet a day.
  • #5- EnviroProcess will establish a EGP 73.5 mn recycling plant for alternative fuels and fibers in Minya, creating some 170 jobs.

#1- Day two of Madbouly in Brussels: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly is in the Belgian capital today to participate in the EU’s Global Gateway Forum on behalf of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Held under the theme “Stronger Together through Sustainable Investment,” more than 40 high-level government representatives from the EU and its partner countries are attending the two-day event, as will representatives of financial institutions, businesses and international organizations.

On day one: Madbouly met with Jan De Nul senior officials to discuss exporting renewableenergy of at least 2 GW from Egypt to Europe via a Mediterranean link, according to a cabinet statement yesterday. The prime minister also sat down with EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovski to discuss bringing Egyptian agricultural food products to the European market, a second statement said.

#2- It’s the final day of “Davos in the Desert”: Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative (FII) is wrapping up today. Conference organizers wanted to focus on highlighting the kingdom as an investment hotspot to the world’s financial elite and the ways we can use AI to build a better future, but there was always one issue looming in the background — Israel’s brutal war on Gaza. (Bloomberg | Reuters | CNN | Times of Israel | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal)

War casts a shadow: World Bank President Ajay Banga warned the conference that the economic impact of Israel’s war on Gaza may be “even more serious” than we currently think, reports the Times of Israel. Many Wall Street CEOs mirrored Banga’s gloomy predictions, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink who said that in the midst of war “when there’s less hope, we see contractions in our economies.”

Saudi open for business: Despite senior bankers, investors, and policymakers telling journalists on the sidelines of the conference how geopolitical turmoil might disrupt the global economy and Middle East investments, the conference’s message was clear — its business as usual in the kingdom, reports the Financial Times.

** What about the economic impact in our neck of the woods? IMF head Kristalina Georgieva spoke on that yesterday, which we cover in detail in the news well, below.

Meanwhile, Citi CEO Jane Fraser had this to say: “There’s a new S in ESG, which is security.” If anyone knows what that means, please let us know.

PSA for iSheep– Apple looks set to launch something new and “scary fast”. The tech giant sent invitations for a livestream event in which it is expected to announce the rollout of new Mac laptops, reports CNBC. The tagline on the Halloween-esque invite reads “scary fast”, leading to speculation that Apple is going to release faster M3 chips. The event will be held at 8pm ET on 30 October.

Back with a splash: Shark Tank Egypt’s second season kicked off last night, as local entrepreneurs pitched their projects and products to a panel of accomplished investors. Season two will air every Wednesday night on CBC and WATCH IT.

MARKET WATCH-

Oil demand to peak this decade: Global demand for oil, coal, and natural gas will peakthis decade as the shift towards renewables and electric vehicles helps wean the world off fossil fuels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual World Energy Outlook report (pdf). The IEA expects global oil demand to peak at around 102 mn barrels per day in the late 2020s, before dropping to 97 mn b/d by 2050 if governments maintain their current energy policies.

But, we could do better: The agency says that demand could drop to 93 mn b/d in 2030 if governments commit to their national energy and climate targets and even 77 mn b/d if they carry out further policy changes to reach net zero by 2050. “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of if, it’s just a matter of how soon,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement accompanying the report.

This may be too optimistic of an outlook: The IEA’s optimistic outlook comes shortly afterOPEC published its 2023 World Oil Outlook (pdf), where it upped its long-term oil demand outlook to 116 mn b/d by 2045, a 5% jump from its 2022 forecast. The figure has “potential to be even higher,” the alliance of oil producers said. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told the Financial Times that the IEA’s forecast is not even “remotely right.”

Tags: