It’s a particularly tense morning in our corner of the world after a horrific hospital bombing in Gaza killed as many as 500 people late yesterday, setting back a diplomatic push by Arab countries to temper Israel’s war on Gaza and raising the prospect of more widespread unrest.

It’s a fast-moving situation, but here’s what we know:

  • As many as 500 people were killed yesterday after Israel bombed a hospital in Gaza, Palestinian health authorities said. Officials have yet to release a final casualty toll.
  • Israel blamed the attack on Palestinian Islamic Jihad, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accusing it of intentionally killing its own people. The Israel military claims the blast was the result of a rocket fired by PIJ that failed after launching.
  • Arab states aren’t buying it, with countries across the region condemning Israel in the strongest terms yet and declaring three days of mourning;
  • Joe Biden is still heading to Tel Aviv to reaffirm support for Israel’s brutal war on Gaza, and other Western leaders have so far declined to assign blame for the blast;
  • Jordan has canceled Biden’s meeting in Amman with the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and Palestine;
  • Protests erupted in several Arab countries condemning Israel, the US, the UK and France.

It’s unclear what becomes of Arab and other diplomatic initiatives, including Egypt’s Gaza summit of regional and world leaders on Saturday and the emergency meeting of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh today. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is also expected in Cairo as early as today for talks with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

And it’s not clear how others in the region might react: There’s a danger of heightened tensions on Israel’s border with Lebanon. Hezbollah has called for a “day of rage” across the Arab world today and urged Muslims to protest against Israel. Protests have already occurred outside Western embassies in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, as well as on the streets of Ramallah where demonstrators called for the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas.

What Biden does next is key: With yesterday’s bombing hardening Arab sentiment, it could hardly be a worse time for the US president to land in Tel Aviv. Yesterday’s snub by the Jordanians is a sign of growing Arab impatience with Washington’s unwillingness to try to rein-in the Israeli assault following the cool response by Arab leaders to Antony Blinken’s recent attempts at outreach. What Biden does next will have a significant impact on America’s standing in the region and the future course of the conflict.

Waiting in the wings: Russia and China are both making their pitches to the Arab world, with the countries’ leaders expected to meet in Beijing today to discuss the conflict. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping have struck a more neutral tone in the conflict, condemning Hamas’ attack but also voicing heavy criticism of Israel’s response and coming out in support for a Palestinian state.

Another UNSC vote today:Reuters is reporting that the UN Security Council will vote on a Brazil-drafted resolution for a humanitarian pause in the conflict, two days after a Russian resolution was rejected.Russia and UAE both called for an emergency council meeting to take place today following the hospital strike, according to the AFP.

THE WESTERN PRESS HAS NO CLUE, #379-

The Economist wants Egypt to be an accomplice in ethnic cleansing, with an insipid op-ed this week that Egypt needs to let Palestinians into Sinai with “Israel, America and well-meaning Arab states [making] a formal [promise], underwritten by the United States, that the flight into the Sinai would be temporary.” “Well-meaning Arab states.” You can practically taste the condescension from here.

NYT’s Dealbook, led by the usually very smart Andrew Ross Sorkin, is wringing its hands over whether business leaders should attend MbS’ Davos in the Desert. Why? Dealbook would have us believe that there are “questions swirling over who will attend and who will drop out of the event” because [gasp] Riyadh hasn’t expressed the requisite amount of sympathy to Israel and has been cool to US diplomacy on the Gaza-Israel war.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- We’re about to get a new US ambassador:The US SenateForeign Relations Committee will meet on Thursday for a hearing on Herro Mustafa Garg ’s nomination to be the new US ambassador to Egypt, the Foreign Relations Committee said on Monday. Garg was nominated by US President Joe Biden to head the US Embassy in Egypt earlier this year after serving as the US ambassador to Bulgaria from October 2019 to March 2023. She’s a career diplomat with plenty of Mideast experience and speaks both Kurdish and Arabic.

#2- El Sisi to meet Guterres in Cairo: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi as early as today, Reuters reports, to discuss getting aid to Gaza. Guterres is expected to attend Egypt’s Gaza summit on Saturday, 21 October, which will be attended by a large number of regional and international leaders to discuss the “developments and future of the Palestinian issue,” according to a statement from the National Security Council on Sunday. Leaders of Arab nations and the members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK and US) have all been invited.

#3- Wataniya stake sale could be wrapped up by December: The government could announce the winner of the stake in military-owned filling station operator Wataniya within a month to six weeks, Planning Minister Hala El Saeed said in an interview with Asharq Business (watch,runtime: 3:23). The government is currently compiling a shortlist of the companies that submitted offers to purchase the stake El Saeed added. The Sovereign Fund of Egypt is looking to sell at least 10% — and potentially as much as 100% — of Wataniya as part of the state’s privatization program.

We counted six bidders: Shell and China’s North Petroleum recently joined Taqa Arabia, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC), and Saudi firm Petromin as the companies that have reportedly submitted offers for the Wataniya stake. Bids range between USD 250 mn and USD 280 mn, Asharq Business reported.

DATA POINT-

The EGX30 surged to a record high for a second day in a row, as investors continue to hedge against a widely anticipated devaluation and soaring inflation. The benchmark index rose 5% during trading yesterday to close above 22k points for the first time ever.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: Egypt is boosting its digital infrastructure, with big targets for the next few years.

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