Good morning, friends.

The conflict in Gaza remains the BIG STORY AT HOME on this very war-heavy morning after President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met yesterday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. There is also a report that suggests there may have been progress on talks to allow aid into the enclave, and the Biden administration says it now views the expulsion of Palestinians out of Gaza and into Sinai a “non-starter,” the US’ top diplomat said in an interview. We have a rundown on the situation on the ground and in diplomacy in this morning’s news well, below.

The war is set to dominate today’s news cycle, with plenty of activity on the diplomatic front as Israel prepares for what it says will be a decisive land invasion of Gaza.

#1- Egypt wants to host a summit to address the conflict in Gaza, with El Sisi looking to invite regional and world leaders to Cairo to discuss “the developments and future of the Palestinian issue,” Ittihadiya said yesterday following a meeting of the National Security Council. There’s no word yet on when the summit will take place or who’s on the invite list. The summit got wide attention on last night’s talk shows, from Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 3:50 | 9:04) to El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 3:04) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 3:39).

Blinken declined to confirm whether the US would attend the summit when asked in an interview yesterday, saying only that the US “welcomes any efforts’ to resolve the conflict.

#2- New US Gaza envoy arrives in Egypt today:Veteran diplomat David Satterfield has been tapped to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza Blinken told reporters yesterday. The Biden administration announced Satterfield’s appointment yesterday amid global alarm about the human cost of Israel’s war against Hamas.

#3- UNSC vote today: Russia will today push for a UN Security Council vote on its draft resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire and condemning terrorism and civilian deaths, according to Reuters.

The Arab League is planning a UNSC resolution of its own. Look for the body to present a three-pronged plan to agree a ceasefire, ensure aid into Gaza, and prevent the displacement of Palestinians, Arab League official to the UN Maged Abdel Fattah said on Ala Masouleety last night (watch, runtime: 9:53).

#4- An emergency OIC meeting this week: Saudi Arabia will host an emergency meeting of theOrganization of Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh on Wednesday to discuss the escalating situation.

THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT-

A warning from Jamie Dimon: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said over the weekend, warning that the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine could destabilize food and energy prices.

Market reaction to the war has so far been relatively “muted,”Reuters reports, but analysts worry that global inflation and interest rates could rise if the conflict expands to the wider region. “I have no clue whether markets will remain relatively well behaved,” Erik Nielsen, group chief economics advisor at UniCredit told Reuters.

On the energy side of the equation, oil prices rose by 6% on Friday on vague concerns about output. Last week, Egypt’s gas imports from Israel dropped 20% after Chevron halted production of the Tamar gas field in the Mediterranean. Safe haven assets including gold and the USD are already attracting investors, with gold prices up 3% at the close of last week and the USD on a one-week high.

Asian markets are stable (ish) to start off the week: Oil and gold prices are down slightly in Asian trading this morning, suggesting that investors aren’t (yet) freaking out about the prospect of a wider war in the region. The stock markets are a different story, with most bourses in the region in the red. The Nikkei (-1.6%) is leading losses, with shares in South Korea and China also lower. Stock markets in Europe and the US will open in the green later today, according to equity futures.

^^ We have the full details in this morning’s War Watch, below.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Today in the House: Another three bills are due to be put to a General Assembly vote today:

  • The expat car-for-FX initiative could be on its way for a three-month reboot. MPs will discuss and vote on whether to allow Egyptian expats to import tax-free with the proviso that they deposit the equivalent of saved duties and taxes in a five-year FX certificate of deposit. The Madbouly government expects to drum up between USD 450 mn and USD 1 bn via the new iteration of the program, a government source told Enterprise.The Finance Ministry had targeted USD 2.5 bn in the first round of the scheme, which reportedly raised around USD 900 mn.
  • Changes to the Importers Registry that would allow foreign companies to become importerscould see the light of day if MPs vote through the legislation today. The bill would allow non-Egyptian investors to become registered importers and hold up to 49% of a trading company.
  • Abu Dhabi Ports could gain the right to build and develop the superstructure of the SafagaPort as well as handle its management, operation, and management if a new draft bill passes the floor.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

S&P is next up to review our credit rating: S&P Global Rating will publish its review of our sovereign credit rating on Friday. Moody’s downgraded its rating for Egypt to Caa1 from B3 earlier this month due to worsening debt affordability and the FX crunch.

GREEN ENERGY-

Wind farm proposals from Scatec, OC to be finalized before year’s end? The Madbouly government expects to close on separate agreements with Orascom Construction and Scatec to build new wind projects, a senior Electricity Ministry official confirmed to Enterprise. The New Renewable Energy Authority and the energy companies are expected to sign development agreements within the next two months, our source told us.

Remember: On the sidelines of COP27 last November, an OC-led consortium with Engie and Toyota Tsusho signed up to build a 3-GW wind farm and Scatec said it was interested in building a portfolio of up to 5 GW of wind projects worth some USD 5 bn.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Egypt AutomotiveAftermarket Exhibition will run for the next three days at the Cairo International Convention Center, gathering players in the aftermarket industry including manufacturers and retailers.

The deadline for technical and financial offers for the Misr Aluminum Company rehabilitation project has been extended by one month, according to an EGX disclosure from the company Sunday. The deadline was pushed back from 12 October to 12 November “based on the request of many companies,” the statement said.

ICYMI-

Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at how Egypt’s elevator industry — which has typically supplied around 30% or less of the country’s total elevator demand — now needs to pick up production as imports of completely built elevators have become increasingly limited and expensive.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue:Higher education rankings show a mixed bag for Egypt’s universities

Tags: