What’s an extra USD 2 bn between friends?The Madbouly government is in talks with the IMF to raise its USD 3 bn loan program to more than USD 5 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The Fund will need to sign off on the first two reviews of the program before any announcement is made topping up the loan, the people said.

Remember: The IMF postponed reviews scheduled for March and September after authorities failed to meet several conditions of the facility, including a commitment to implement a fully flexible exchange rate.

We could know more before the end of the month: The IMF will announce by the end of October when it will conduct its reviews, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Al Arabiya in an interview on Saturday. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said earlier in the week that the Fund is in “close engagement” with the government about setting the dates but didn’t offer further details. Maait said last week that the reviews will be completed before the end of the year. Passing the reviews would see the Fund disburse USD 700 mn under the loan program, along with USD 1.3 bn under its Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

Extra money comes = extra conditions. Look for the IMF to request that the government undertake more far-reaching structural reforms in return for bumping up the size of the assistance program. Bloomberg did not have further details about the nature of the conversations, though its sources said that no agreement has been made.

An upscaled program has been floated recently by some analysts, including Hany Geneina who told us earlier this month that the Fund could increase the loan in return for a commitment to undertaking reforms early in 2024 including the currency float and a lifting of energy subsidies.

“Egypt has made good progress on a number of fronts,”Bloomberg quotes Georgieva as saying on Thursday. Cabinet has made headway on asset sales, fiscal policy, and monetary policy reform, she said at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Morocco. Georgieva said going into the meetings that we would continue to “bleed” reserves if the currency is not devalued.

USD 1.5 BN IN FRESH BORROWING THIS QUARTER-

Panda + Samurai bond issuances this quarter? The government expects to borrow at least USD 1.5 bn between now and the end of the year, Maait told Bloomberg. This includes the planned USD 500 mn issuances of CNY-denominated bonds in October and JPY-denominated bonds in November. The African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have guaranteed up to USD 545 mn of the panda bonds, the minister added. The AfDB is covering USD 345 mn and the AIIB USD 200 mn.

A syndicated bank loan: The government hopes to reach an agreement this month with a syndicate of banks for a USD 500 mn loan, Maait told the news outlet. He didn’t disclose which lenders it is in talks with but said that Kuwaiti ins. company Dhaman could guarantee the loan.

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