Egypt condemns Gaza displacement, demands aid entry to prevent humanitarian catastrophe: Israel’s order that some 1 mn Palestinians in Gaza leave their homes is a “grave violation” of international law, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said Friday after the Israeli military told residents of Gaza City to move south. The ministry urged the UN Security Council to intervene to prevent Israel from escalating its attacks and driving people from their homes, which the UN said would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.

The situation on the ground is dire:According to the UN’s Palestine refugee agency, almost half of Gaza’s population has now been displaced, a process which accelerated over the weekend as civilians fled south in fear of further bombardment by the Israeli military. The territory is now facing a “severe shortage” of water, the UN said, as Israel’s total siege prevents clean water, food, fuel and humanitarian aid from entering. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohamed Shtayyeh on Thursday said that Israel’s actions amount to genocide.

Everyone is bracing for an invasion: Israel said troops are getting ready for “a significant ground operation … [including] an integrated and coordinated attack from the air, sea and land,” the New York Times reports Israel’s military as having said. Israel has yet to announce when it plans to invade.

Egypt rejects calls to resettle Palestinians in Egypt: In a speech Thursday, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi rejected calls by Israel and Western nations to allow Gazans into Egypt, saying that Palestinians should remain on their land and warning that leaving the strip could “liquidate” their cause (watch, runtime: 19:53). State news agency MENA last week quoted an unnamed security source accusing Israel of carrying out a plan to forcibly transfer the population of Gaza into Egypt. “The occupation government is forcing Palestinians to choose between death under bombing or displacement outside their lands,” it quoted the official as saying.

Arab nations warn against displacement: The Saudi and Qatari foreign ministries expressed their “categorical rejection” of Israel’s displacement of the Palestinians, Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned against “any attempt to forcibly displace” Gaza’s population, and Arab League chair Ahmed Aboul Gheit called on UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to condemn the “insane Israeli effort to transfer the population.”

Backing from Turkey: “We reject the policy of Palestinians’ being removed from their homes in Gaza and exiled into Egypt. We are fully against it and stand with Egypt,” Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan said in a press conference following talks with El Sisi and Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in Cairo on Saturday, according to Reuters. The Turkish Foreign Ministry had earlier condemned Israel’s “brutal and indiscriminate” attacks on Gaza.

Western nations are reportedly trying to use Egypt’s economic crisis as leverage: “We understand there have been offers to Egypt by some western governments for debt forgiveness and direct investment in return for a more flexible position on Gaza,” a senior Cairo-based banker reportedly told the National.

Allow in aid or no-one gets out, says Egypt: Egypt is refusing to allow citizens of western countries to evacuate Gaza via the Rafah crossing until Israel and the US agree to allow in humanitarian aid, the WallStreet Journal reported last night. US officials had been in negotiations with Egyptian authorities to allow its citizens to cross the border into Egypt. “We can’t allow a few foreigners out and not allow humanitarian aid in for the Palestinians who will be stuck there,” said one Egyptian official.

No mercy: “Humanitarian aid to Gaza? No electrical switch will be lifted, no water hydrant will be opened and no fuel truck will enter until the Israeli hostages are returned home,” Israel’s energy minister wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday.

Aid is being flown into Egypt: The Foreign Ministry on Thursday called on countries and international organizations who wish to help Gaza out to send aid to El Arish airport, which the government has designated as a spot for aid collection. Two flights carrying aid, including one from Turkey, landed at the airport yesterday, bringing the total number that have arrived since the conflict started to at least five, according to Reuters.

The flurry of diplomatic activity continued over the weekend as regional leaders scrambled to avert a humanitarian disaster and prevent the conflict from dragging in neighboring countries.

  • El Sisi spoke to his Brazilian counterpart Lula da Silva, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British prime minister Rishi Sunak over the phone.
  • Shoukry held talks with his Japanese, German, and British counterparts.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has traveled to several countries in the Middle East looking to minimize blowback in the region, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and Bahrain. His first stop-off was in Israel where he pledged more US support.
  • Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has also been touring the region, holding talks with the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, the prime ministers of Lebanon and Iraq, the foreign ministers of Qatar and Syria, and the UN envoy to the Middle East.
  • Chinese foreign ministerWang Yi and Russian president Vladimir Putin have both criticized one-sided US policy for contributing to the crisis and voiced support for the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

A REGIONAL WAR — AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC DOWNTURN?

Iran has warned that it will intervene in the conflict if Israel continues its attack on Gaza, Axios reports, citing two diplomatic sources. During talks with the UN’s envoy to the Middle East yesterday, the country’s foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that a ground offensive into Gaza will cross a red line and it will respond. Sporadic exchanges of fire continued on Israel’s borders with Syria and Lebanon at the weekend, while the Israeli military has bombed airports in Syria several times in recent days.

Regional escalation in the Israel-Hamas war could create a global economic downturn: The ongoing war between Israeli forces and Hamas will take a toll on global growth, says Bloomberg, but to what extent will depend on the involvement of other regional actors. In a long read, the media outlet lays out three potential scenarios for how the conflict will hit global oil prices and growth rates.

The worst-case scenario: Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the war escalates into a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, oil prices could spike to USD 150 per barrel, leading global growth rates to slow to 1.7%. This would chop around USD 1 tn off world output and put global inflation at 6.7% in 2024.

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