Good morning, wonderful people. The news cycle didn’t slow down in the slightest over the weekend as the war between Israel and Hamas accelerated and the IMF and World Bank meetings continued in Marrakech.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will touch down in Cairo today in what will be his latest stop in a breakneck tour of regional capitals aimed at softening the Arab response to Israel’s assault on Gaza — which has forced some 1 mn people from their homes and killed more than 2.2k — and prevent the conflict from escalating into a regional conflagration. Expect intense discussions on Israel’s displacement of thousands of Gazans, the entrance of humanitarian aid into the enclave, and the fate of US citizens trapped at the Rafah border crossing.

MPs to speak on Palestinian displacement: A large number of MPs are expected to take to the floor in the House of Representatives today with statements condemning Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip and rejecting the displacement of Palestinians into Sinai.

We have the rundown on the latest from the war in this morning’s war watch, below.

THE BIG BUSINESS STORY HERE AT HOME- We’ll know by the end of October when the IMF will review our progress on the terms of our USD 3 bn loan program, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Al Arabiya. Bloomberg reported Friday that an IMF mission could arrive in Cairo to start the first and second reviews this month. The minister’s comments to the Saudi broadcaster followed an interview with CNBC Arabia during which he said that the reviews will be completed before the end of the year.

We may be asking the Fund for as much as USD 2 bn more under the program, an unconfirmed report suggests. The news comes the same weekend the fund released a report predicting that our budget deficit is going to rise to 10.7% of GDP this fiscal year, more than double the year before. We’ve got the rundown on these stories and more in this morning’s news well, below.

PRIVATIZATION WATCH- Shell and China’s North Petroleum both want a piece of Wataniya: Shell Oil has teamed up with an unnamed investor owned by the Saudi government to target a stake in the military-owned filling station operator Wataniya, reports Al Borsa, citing sources it says are in the know. China’s North Petroleum also submitted an offer, the local outlet added. The Sovereign Fund of Egypt is working to sell at least 10% — and potentially as much as 100% — of Wataniya as part of the state’s privatization program. The company is currently 100% owned by the military’s National Service Projects Organization.

That makes six reportedly in the running: Taqa Arabia, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC), and Saudi firm Petromin have all reportedly submitted offers for the Wataniya stake, with local media reporting that bids ranged between USD 250 mn and USD 280 mn. The Madbouly government has said that it aims to conclude the sale before the year is out.

ELECTION WATCH- It looks like the presidential election is going to be a four-person race afterRepublican People’s Party leader Hazem Omar submitted his running papers, according to a statement by the party. Omar joins President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Farid Zahran (Social Democratic Party), and Abdel-Sanad Yamama (Al Wafd) in the race after the window for nominations closed on Saturday. Opposition politician Ahmed El Tantawy has dropped out of the race.

What’s next: The National Elections Authority will announce the official list of candidates tomorrow after reviewing each candidate’s paperwork. Voting takes place 10-12 December in Egypt, and 1-3 December abroad.

EGP WATCH- Standard Chartered sees no devaluation, changes to interest rates before the end of this year: The bank thinks that Egypt will not see further devaluations of the EGP or changes in interest rates until the end of the year, reports Asharq Business, citing a research note from the bank. “The way markets have understood moving forward the presidential elections from 1Q 2024 to December is that the reforms initially earmarked for 2023 will wait until after the election,” Standard Chartered Bank economist Carla Slim told Asharq Business last week (watch, runtime: 8:25).

COMMODITIES WATCH- Wheat price hedges incoming for 2024? “There is a good possibility that we do the wheat hedging next year,” Finance Minister Mohamed Maait told Bloomberg on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings in Morocco. Maait told the outlet that the Madbouly government is already in talks with several unnamed banks about the plan.

It’s not the first time we’ve heard about potential wheat hedges: As one of the world’s largest importers of wheat, this isn’t the first time we’ve explored hedging against volatile wheat prices. However, while wheat hedging plans are yet to see the light of day, we’ve been hedging big on another important import this year — oil.

IN THE HOUSE-

The House is back in session for the 2023-2024 legislative season: Four bills are up for debate and vote today and tomorrow during plenary sessions in the House, including:

If that wasn’t enough, a further eight foreign agreements are also on the agenda, including:

  • Raising Egypt’s contribution to the paid-up capital of the African Development Bank;
  • A pact with Japan on the first phase of the fourth line of Cairo’s Metro as well as an agreement with South Korea to manufacture and supply 320 train coaches for the Cairo Metro;
  • Approving a EUR 670k Spanish grant earmarked to modernize water systems in the agricultural sector;
  • A credit facility that will see TMH International supply 1.3k train coaches to the Egyptian National Railway;
  • Banning double taxation on profits generated from air transport between Egypt and Brazil;
  • And agreements on the disposal of dangerous waste and on traffic signals.

** Head down to this morning’s news well for a full rundown on the bills that matter most to business as we settle in for the 2023-2024 legislative season.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Lynx forum on EVs kicks off today:The forum, backed by USAID, international development NGO DAI, and Uber, will see industry leaders, government officials and international experts meet to discuss the rollout of electric vehicles in Egypt. After the discussions, a proposed roadmap to accelerate the local adoption of EVs will be submitted to the Supreme Automotive Industrial Council, according to a joint pressrelease(pdf).

Not enough IMF news in this morning’s issue for you? There are still a few hours left for more: The Fund and the World Bank will wrap up their annual meetings today in Morocco in just a few hours.

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