More than 1.1k people are dead in Palestine and Israel as a war between Hamas and Israeli forces enters its third day. Israeli airstrikes pummeled Gaza and Hamas fighters are still in southern Israel. Israeli military officials have also estimated that upwards of 150 Israelis may have been taken to Gaza as hostages and bargaining chips for a potential prisoner swap The UN says as many as 124k Gazans have been forced out of their homes as airstrikes hit the densely populated enclave.

The conflict shows little sign of cooling, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning of a “long and difficult war” ahead. Israel’s security cabinet formally declared war on Hamas Saturday, lending the prime minister and security forces a stronger mandate. US officials expect Israel to launch a ground incursion into Gaza in the next couple of days, according to the Washington Post. Concerns have also been raised that an exchange of fire between Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israeli Defence Forces on Israel’s northern border could escalate into a larger confrontation.

The story is getting plenty of ink: New York Times | Washington Post | Financial Times | Bloomberg | Wall Street Journal | Reuters | Associated Press.

DIPLOMACY-

Egypt is talking to both sides: Egyptian authorities have reached out to representatives of Hamas and the Israeli government in an attempt to de-escalate the conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing several Egyptian officials.

Remember: Egypt is often the key interlocutor between Israel and armed Palestinian groups and has succeeded several times in the past at brokering ceasefires.

This time could prove more difficult: There are conflicting reports in the press about where Israel stands on the subject of talks, though none of them are promising. The WSJ reports that Israeli officials are refusing to countenance negotiations until they respond militarily, while another denied the existence of talks when asked by the Times of Israel.

El Sisi speaks with regional leaders: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi held talks with Jordan’s K ing Abdul lah II and Palestinian President Mah moud Abb as yesterday in a bid to find a way to calm the conflict. The Egyptian and Jordanian leaders agreed on “the priority of coordinating regional and international efforts toward ending the escalation and violence, sparing blood and preventing a further exacerbation of the situation,” Ittihadiya said in a statement. El Sisi also spoke with German chancellor Ola f Sch olz and European Council head Ch arles Mi chel. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry held a phone call with US Secretary of State Ant ony Bli nken, in addition to his counterparts from I tal y, th e UK, Canada, Hungary and the N ethe rlands.

GLOBAL REACTION-

  • We warned you, Riyadh tells Israel: “The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement, calling for both sides to de-escalate.
  • Others in the region blamed Israel: Qatar said Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians was to blame for the attack, while Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah both praised the attack.
  • US beefs up military presence + condemns attack: The US navy is de ploying a carrier strike g roup to the eastern Mediterranean. Describing the attack as “unconscionable,” President Joe Biden said the US will send fresh military aid to Israel.
  • Halt to German aid? Berlin is considering suspending all aid to the Palestinians in response to the attack. (Reuters)

THE CHATTER-

Not even two days into the conflict and the chattering classes are already prognosticating about the possible long-term impact of the attack:

A blow to EastMed gas? The New York Times ’ Stanley Reed thinks that events could slow investment in the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas fields.

Saudi-Israel deal dead? There’s plenty of speculation among analysts about what this means for the much-vaunted Saudi-Israel normalization process, one of the Biden administration’s top foreign policy priorities. What most of them are saying: All of this is going to make an agreement much harder. (Financial Times | New York Times | France24)

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