Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a very heavy news morning. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will seek a third term, Morgan Stanely doesn’t like us, the sugar market is looking a bit dysfunctional right now, and we could get yet more money from IFC for a key private sector project — and that’s just for starters.

ELECTION 2023-

El Sisi has officially thrown his hat into the ring: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will seek a third term in office after he announced yesterday his candidacy for December’s presidential election. “I have decided to nominate myself to you to complete the dream of a new presidential term,” the president said on the final day of the “Story of a Homeland” conference, a three-day forum in the new capital dedicated to a review of his time in office.

At least two other candidates are in the race: The Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran both secured spots on the ballot earlier this week after obtaining the minimum number of signatures from MPs to be listed as candidates.

Waiting in the wings: Republican People’s Party Senator Hazem Omar is expected to join the race in the coming days, but will first need the Senate to accept his resignation. Omar has collected signatures from 44 MPs, qualifying him to join the preliminary list of candidates. The Karama Party’s Ahmed Tantawi and head of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail are also trying to collect signatures to get onto the ballot.

Remember: Egyptians will go to the polls in December to elect a president for a new six-year term. Polls will be open at home on 10-12 December while expats will vote on 1-3 December.

The results will be announced on December 18, with a runoff in early 2024 if there is no clear winner.

The news received international coverage: Associated Press | Reuters | AFP | Bloomberg | The National.

MARKET WATCH-

We just got a “dislike” from Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley has adopted a negative outlook on our debt on concerns about our financing gap and uncertainty about how we’ll roll out reforms required by our USD 3 bn agreement with the IMF, according to Bloomberg. The bulge bracket bank has downgraded its rating of our sovereign debt to “dislike” from “neutral” on what it said were “mounting risks” in the coming months, including from December’s presidential election, which it said could delay the reform agenda.

High US yields are bad for Egypt: The bank’s bearish stance on riskier assets is the result of an increase in US inflation-adjusted yields, Morgan Stanley wrote in a report, leading it to prefer higher-yielding emerging debt. “The prospect of a prolonged period of elevated rates in the US may now keep Egypt locked out of global capital markets for longer,” Bloomberg wrote. The media outlet last month ranked Egypt as the second-most vulnerable country to a debt crisis.

And they’re going higher: US Treasury yields hit their highest levels in 16 years yesterday as the global bond sell-off resumed, writes the Financial Times. The rate on 10-year bonds climbed 0.13 percentage points to 4.70% yesterday after positive manufacturing data hardened traders’ expectations for interest rates to remain high over the long term.

We already knew 2024 was going to be expensive: We need USD 29.2 bn of financing to meet debt repayments next year, equal to almost a fifth of our total external debt, according to central bank figures out last week. Morgan Stanley puts the figure at USD 24 bn for the current fiscal year.

FX WATCH-

HSBC reduces FX withdrawal limit by a third: HSBC Egypt customers are now able to only make USD 1k in overseas foreign-currency withdrawals per month, down from USD 1.5k previously, according to the bank’s webs ite. The tighter restriction went into effect at the beginning of the month. This limit includes the amount you withdraw plus any additional fees that HSBC or the ATM imposes on the withdrawal. The transactions include withdrawals using debit and credit cards, as well as cash advances using credit cards at ATMs.

IN THE HOUSE TODAY-

#1- Emergency cost of living measures up for discussion: The House Budget Committee will discuss two draft bills that would raise the income tax exemption threshold, and double exceptional stimulus payments to public-sector workers and pensioners. The changes were among a list of measures announced by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi last month to alleviate the impact of the economic crisis on vulnerable households.

#2- Parliamentary committee posts announced: The speaker will announce the results of yesterday’s election of a chairman, two deputies, and a secretary general for each of the House’s 25 committees.

#3- The Senate is back in session: Senators will reconvene today after the two-month summer recess with committee elections top of the agenda. Senate speaker Abdel Wahab Abdel Razeq will today open the door for members wishing to run for the leading posts of the chamber’s 14 committees. Results will be announced during the Senate’s Wednesday session.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

IT’S NOBEL WEEK- The scientists who made possible a covid vaccine got the Nobel yesterday: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was jointly awarded yesterday to two scientists from Hungary and the US, Katalin Karakó and Drew Weissman, for their groundbreaking contributions to the creation of the mRNA covid-19 vaccine.

The physics prize will be announced today: Regarded amongst the most prestigious awards, the Nobel Prize in Physics has been handed to some of the world’s most iconic figures in the arena of science like Albert Einstein and Marie Curie. The prize for chemistry will be announced tomorrow, followed by the literature, peace, and economic sciences prizes through the rest of the week.

HAPPENING NEXT YEAR?

EGX to launch financial derivatives market in 2024? The EGX is in the process of completing procedures with financial regulators and brokerage companies to launch a derivatives market during 2024, the bourse’s new boss Ahmed El Sheikh told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 3:50). Brokerage companies will now study market and human resources requirements needed to introduce investors to new financial derivatives, he added.

Boosting EGX investor reach: The new derivatives market will attract new segments of investors to the EGX, El Sheikh added. The news follows last week's EGX statement that it has taken responsibility for managing the secondary market for t-bills, allowing them to be traded on the bourse in a move to improve investor accessibility, boost trade volumes, and lower yields.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

Get used to seeing this a lot: Trump is in court. (Associated Press | Reuters | New York Times | Washington Post | WSJ)

The latest from Capitol Hill: Republicans are doing Republican things. (Associated Press | Reuters | New York Times | Washington Post | WSJ)

US recession: Here are all the reasons why the Fed probably isn’t going to achieve its “soft landing.” (Bloomberg)

A more Sino-friendly IMF? Georgieva backs handing Beijing more power at the Fund. (Financial Times)

THE REALIGNMENT-

Saudi-US defense treaty tied to normalization with Israel: Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of a military pact with the US is dependent on the kingdom opening up relations with Israel, Reuters reports, citing three regional sources it says are familiar with the talks. The potential military pact is expected to fall short of the kingdom’s initial hopes of a NATO-style commitment by the US and instead resemble treaties the US has with its Asian allies, the newswire added, citing what it said was a US official familiar with the negotiations. Some concessions for the Palestinians are expected to come out of any agreement; however, the Palestine question appears to have taken a back seat, with Reuters quoting one of its regional sources as stating “The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path.”

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: How industrial players and the government are working to combat industrial pollution.

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