Good morning, wonderful people, and happy October to you all. We’re in a particularly chipper mood for a Sunday because:

We’re getting another long weekend: This Thursday will be a national holiday for both business and government as the private and public sectors alike observe Armed Forces Day, which falls on Friday. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly made it official in a statement last week.

MEANWHILE- The state’s rolling power cuts did not come to an end on Friday, contrary to reports carried by a number of local press outlets over the long weekend. A senior official at the Electricity Ministry with whom we spoke said it has not received any instructions to cease the nation-wide schedule of rolling blackouts in place since mid-July. The ministry will “continue the schedule of approved load reductions,” he said.

When could we see a return to 24/7 power? The Electricity Ministry is awaiting further information from the cabinet about bringing the blackouts to an end, the official told us. We were told that the decision largely depends on the Oil Ministry, which determines the volume of supplies provided to power stations. Local media reported last week that the power cuts could continue until at least the middle of October, citing sources at the Electricity Ministry.

It’s the beginning of a new month- Among the customary news triggers to watch out for in the coming weeks:

  • PMI: S&P Global will publish Egypt’s PMI figures for September this Tuesday, 3 October.
  • Foreign reserves: The central bank will release September’s foreign reserves figures next week.
  • Inflation: Capmas and the CBE will publish the latest inflation data on Tuesday, 10 October.
  • Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt will meet for its penultimate policy meeting of 2023 on 2 November.

ALSO HAPPENING THIS MONTH- Ins. providers face a deadline to link their databases with the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), and the Madbouly government has said it expects to finalize the sale of a stake in military-owned filling station operator Wataniya this month or next.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The House is officially back in session : The House of Representatives is reconvening today for its fall legislative season, with the Senate set to follow suit on 3 October.

And it has packed legislative agenda: Heading into the 2023-2024 parliamentary cycle, the House of Representatives is set to discuss a raft of new government-drafted laws from raising the minimum wage-tax exemption from EGP 36k to EGP 45k to contracting Russia’s Lukoil to explore the Eastern desert for oil alongside state-owned GEPCO, extending the expat car import initiative, and building a centralized government database that would give properties a unique digital ID.

There’s also plenty of proposals carried over from the last legislative cycle to address: The House will be kept busy with the Senate-approved Labour Law and amendments to the 2008 Unified Building Law to reconcile building violations. Updates to the Penal Code to address [redacted] harassment are also set to be discussed as are draft laws regulating drinking water, the rights of refugees, and incentives to encourage green hydrogen projects.

#2- Emergency support measures are in effect: A minimum wage hike for public-sector workers, a higher one-off bonus payment for pensioners and the public sector, and more generous pension payouts announced in September are set to come into effect today.

Check out our full calendar on the webfor a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Could the US Senate’s new Foreign Relations Committee chair take a harder line on Egypt? Democrat Senator Ben Cardin has been named as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, replacing the indicted Senator Bob Menendez who faces felony bribery charges for allegedly accepting bribes to covertly aid Egypt and help a friend sidestep criminal charges. Cardin, a known human rights advocate, this year condemned the Biden administration’s decision to provide USD 235 mn in aid to Egypt, overriding a human rights prohibition.

Cardin has made no decisions yet: As chairman, Cardin can place holds on some funding, which could include the annual US military aid to Egypt. He is said to be studying his options, with the possibility of holding a hearing on the issue before reaching a final decision. “If we want to show the world that respect for human rights is a core dimension of US national security interests, we need to do more in holding wayward governments accountable,” Cardin said in a statement. (Associated Press | Reuters)

Menendez pleads not guilty: Menendez pleaded not guilty on Wednesday to charges of taking bribes from three US businessmen, the Associated Press reports. Charges against Menendez have also prompted US congressmen to call on the Biden administration to rethink the USD 235 mn in military aid to Egypt, according to Reuters.

ELECTION 2023-

Three presidential hopefuls secure a spot on the ballot. The Al Wafd Party’s Abdel-Sanad Yamama (watch, runtime: 0:27) and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran (watch, runtime, 8:16) secured the minimum number of signatures from MPs to be listed as candidates in December’s presidential election. Hazem Omar of the Republican People’s Party, which has some 50 members in the House of Representatives, was able to collect 44 endorsements from MPs (watch, runtime, 0:35).

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has not yet announced a bid for reelection, but has already secured the endorsement of hundreds of members of the House of Representatives. Presidential hopefuls are required to secure 25k endorsements from eligible voters across at least 15 governorates or the endorsement of 20 MPs to be put on the ballot.

Remember: Egyptians living abroad will vote between 1 and 3 December at Egyptian embassies and consulates, while the rest of us will head to the polls in Egypt between 10 and 12 December. The results will be announced on December 18 with a runoff in early 2024 if there is no clear winner.

DATA POINTS-

#1- FDI inflows up 10% in FY 2022-2023: General Authority For Investment (GAFI) CEO Hossam Heiba said on Saturday that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows climbed 10% y-o-y in FY 2022-2023, according to Ahram Online. Heiba did not put an exact figure for the fiscal year, but by our math a 10% jump from USD 8.9 bn the year prior, should put us around the USD 9.8 bn mark.

#2- FRA-regulated financial institutions lent EGP 200 bn to support capital-market activities and non-banking financial services in 2Q 2023, the regulator said in a quarterly report (pdf). Almost half of this went to funding share issuances, while EGP 45.4 bn went to SME financing.

WATCH THIS SPACE -

EGX to roll out IR digital registry: The EGX is setting up a digital registry for investor relations officers at listed companies on the bourse, it said in a statement Wednesday. The registry will be designed to raise the quality of disclosures in terms of timing, content, and improving the communications with market stakeholders. The statement did not specify when the registry will be launched, but said that the EGX will begin procedures for setting up the database and registering IR officers after they pass interviews, tests, and training programs conducted by the EGX.

MARKET WATCH-

Oil output will likely remain unchanged amid an ongoing oil price rally when OPEC+ leaders meet on Wednesday, reports Reuters, citing four unnamed sources from the organization. Rising demand and a lack of supply has driven an oil price rally and caused Brent crude prices to edge towards USD 100 a barrel, up 30% since June.

ALSO ON THE OPEC+ AGENDA- Russia and Saudi’s decision to cut oil production: The upcoming meeting will likely review the commitment Russia and Saudi Arabia made on 15 September to cut oil production by around 1.3 mn barrels per day until the end of the year, according to the newswire.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

The US federal government is not shutting down: US lawmakers passed a last-minute stopgap funding bill on Saturday, averting what would have been the fourth partial shutdown in a decade. The bill, which received overwhelming Democratic support, saw Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy abandon hardline demands from his party that any bill pass the chamber with only Republican votes. Senators voted through the bill, which funds the government until 17 November. (Washington Post | Reuters | Financial Times | WSJ | New York Times | Bloomberg)

Apps and updates are the culprits behind iPhone 15 overheating, says Apple: The software giant is in talks with app developers to fix overheating issues in their newly-released iPhone 15 Pro, Apple officials told Bloomberg. Users have reported their devices overheating as they work overtime to set up and restore data due to a bug in the most recent iOS 17 software and as a result of third-party apps overloading the system. Apple has denied that the problems are related to the hardware of the new line, which includes a titanium frame, and denied that the issue poses safety concerns.

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