It’s official: We’re heading to polls in December. The National Elections Authority (NEA) announced yesterday at a press conference the timetable for the upcoming presidential election, confirming that the voting process will start as early as the first of December (watch, runtime: 7:40).

The vote: Egyptian expats will be able to cast their votes on 1-3 December. For the rest of us, polling booths will be open on 10-12 December.

The result is set to be announced on 18 December. In the event that no candidate wins with a majority in the first round, a runoff vote will take place on 5-7 January abroad and 8-10 January in Egypt. The results of the run-off would be announced on 16 January.

THE POTENTIAL CANDIDATE S-

The incumbent: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is yet to officially announce his candidacy though he is widely expected to seek a third term in office, with a raft of pro-government political parties and syndicates having declared their support in recent days. His term expires in April 2024.

Remember: El Sisi was first elected in 2014 and won a second four-year term in 2018. Constitutional amendments passed in 2019 extended presidential terms to six years and permitted El Sisi to run for a third term. Victory at the polls in December would see him remain in office until 2030.

Who else might be running? Seven politicians have so far expressed their intention to mount a bid for the presidency. The list of potential candidates (in alphabetical order) includes:

  • Former MP and member of the Wafd Party Fouad Badrawi ;
  • Chair of the Democratic Peace Party Ahmed El Fadaly ;
  • Chair of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail ;
  • Head of the People's Republican Party Hazem Omar ;
  • Former MP and former head of the leftist Karama Party Ahmed Tantawi ;
  • Head of the Wafd Party Abdel Sanad Yamama ;
  • Head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party Farid Zahran.

Candidates need to file their running papers between 5-14 October. The preliminary list of candidates will be made public on 16 October, and the final list will be announced on 9 November.

How to get on the list: Under the election law, candidates need to receive nominations from at least 20 MPs, or endorsements from 25k citizens from at least 15 governorates.

THE BACKDROP-

The vote is taking place earlier than expected: Up until this month the NEA was widely expected to schedule the vote in 2024, though in recent days media at home and abroad indicated that it could instead hold it in December.

No IMF review or action on the EGP until the poll is over: Analysts don’t expect accelerated action on economic reforms (particularly the float of the EGP) tied to the IMF program until after the poll: “Any substantial reforms, including another meaningful EGP devaluation, would likely occur only after the presidential elections,” Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, told Bloomberg.

Remember: The IMF has twice delayed reviews of our assistance program (and, with it, approval of the second and third tranches of the USD 3 bn loan) due in large part to our failure to make the exchange rate fully flexible. A fourth devaluation is widely expected to occur ahead of a review.

INT’L REACTION- The international press expects El Sisi to win the poll: Associated Press | Reuters | AFP | Bloomberg | The National.

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